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Mesoscale Discussion 1344 | |
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Mesoscale Discussion 1344 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024 Areas affected...Eastern Wyoming and Western Nebraska Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 201843Z - 202015Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Eastern WY into W NE and SW SD are being considered for a WW this afternoon, as thunderstorms develop on the higher terrain and move east into substantial buoyancy and deep layer shear supportive of large hail and damaging winds. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm coverage has increased over the last hour as convective temperatures have been reached over the higher terrain. This activity is expected to progress eastward into the richer moisture and MLCAPE > 1500 J/kg, underneath deep layer shear of 35-45 kts. Given the buoyancy and shear, a few supercells capable of 2-inch hail and 70 MPH winds are expected across the highlighted area this afternoon. The threat for tornadoes remains low due to high MLLCL heights, though a supercell encountering easterly surface winds in E WY and W NE could produce a brief tornado. Given the environment and storm coverage, WW issuance is anticipated by 19-20Z. ..Halbert/Lyons/Hart.. 06/20/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...BOU...CYS... LAT...LON 41490607 41970602 42590561 43250408 43390316 43470214 43440103 43400043 43040020 42620016 42110013 41650032 41160106 40900214 40900308 40900483 41010589 41490607 |
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