Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1329

   Mesoscale Discussion 1329
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0700 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

   Areas affected...central/southern Minnesota into western Wisconsin

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 433...

   Valid 190000Z - 190200Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 433 continues.

   SUMMARY...Threat for strong to severe wind continues within WW433.

   DISCUSSION...A line of thunderstorms continues eastward across
   Minnesota. Storm mode has largely been linear along an
   eastward-moving cold front. A few sub-severe clusters continue out
   ahead of the main line. Ahead of this line, an unstable air mass
   extends across eastern Minnesota into western Wisconsin with
   temperatures in the low to mid 80s F and dewpoints in the upper 60s
   to 70s F. Within this region, surface objective analysis shows
   MLCAPE around 2000-2500 J/kg. Much of the deep-layer shear remains
   along and on the cool side of the approaching cold front. Downstream
   severe threat will be dependent on upscale growth and strength of
   any developing cold pool within the main line. A watch may be needed
   east of WW433 if trends show potential for storms to develop a deep
   cold pool, and increased potential for a damaging-wind threat.

   ..Thornton/Edwards.. 06/19/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...DLH...ARX...MPX...FSD...

   LAT...LON   43719534 44529506 45559460 46169441 46929368 47319259
               47259205 47199174 46679114 46229113 45669122 45139141
               44859153 44279195 44019215 43779259 43529313 43509467
               43539488 43719534