Mesoscale Discussion 1318
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1235 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024
Areas affected...portions of far northeastern Kentucky...far western
West Virginia...eastern Ohio...western Pennsylvania...far
southwestern New York
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 181735Z - 181900Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...The threat for damaging gusts and isolated instances of
hail will continue to gradually increase through the afternoon. The
overall severe threat should be more sparse, and a WW issuance is
not currently expected.
DISCUSSION...A moist low-level airmass continues to advect northward
and pivot around a deep-layer anticyclone currently positioned over
the Mid Atlantic region. Robust heating of this moist airmass is
resulting in convective temperatures (i.e. 88-90 F) being reached
over many locales, with thunderstorm initiation already underway.
Overspreading this airmass are 6+ C/km mid-level lapse rates, which
are supporting narrow, but tall CAPE profiles, with 2000+ J/kg
MLCAPE already becoming widespread. The current synoptic regime
around the anticyclone is fostering weak vertical shear/flow
profiles, so pulse-cellular is the expected mode of convection,
though multicells are also possible. Wet downbursts with the
stronger storms should support strong wind gusts, some of which may
cause damage. An instance or two of hail are also possible. However,
severe (50+ kt) winds are not expected to be particularly
widespread, so a WW appears unlikely at this time.
..Squitieri/Gleason.. 06/18/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...LWX...PBZ...RLX...CLE...MRX...
JKL...ILN...
LAT...LON 37168390 40228313 41548210 42757904 42437780 41717740
40867792 40197846 39307980 38168080 37238200 37008303
37168390