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Mesoscale Discussion 1280 | |
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Mesoscale Discussion 1280 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0755 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024 Areas affected...western/central North Dakota Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 160055Z - 160200Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Risk of severe storms with potential for large hail, damaging wind, and a tornado or two increasing into the evening. DISCUSSION...Supercells have developed across northern South Dakota and in western North Dakota this afternoon. Thunderstorm activity will increase this evening as a line of thunderstorms moves eastward out of Montana and additional thunderstorms develop along an eastward progressing cold front. These storms will be moving into an environment with favorable shear (40-50 kts 0-6 km) and instability (MLCAPE 2000-2500 J/kg) to support potential for a few discrete supercells and bowing linear segments capable of damaging winds, large hail, and a tornado or two. A watch will be needed soon to cover this threat. ..Thornton/Smith.. 06/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW... LAT...LON 45920352 45890351 45970414 47990423 48720371 48960250 48979997 48899936 48449882 47689880 47009874 46629878 46009907 45870004 45840075 45920352 |
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