Mesoscale Discussion 1237
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1009 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024
Areas affected...South FL
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 121509Z - 121715Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Brief tornadoes and isolated damaging gusts are possible
across south Florida for the next several hours.
DISCUSSION...Recent radar imagery has revealed low-level rotation
within some of the shallow, more cellular convection across southern
FL, particularly near the intersection of Collier, Broward, and
Miami-Dade counties. These showers and thunderstorms are being
initiated by warm-air advection, but are quickly becoming surface
based with the very moist and uncapped airmass across the region.
Buoyancy is modest (i.e. around 1500-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE), promoted
by shallow but vertically deep thermodynamic profiles. This buoyancy
is more than sufficient for deep updrafts capable of lightning.
Additionally, the AMX VAD profiles show notable low-level veering,
with 20 to 25 kt of 0-1 km storm-relative helicity sampled recently.
There may also be some ambient vertical vorticity within the
low-level environment, given the presence of storm outflow and
low-level convergence that is occurring, particularly to the south
of the main precipitation shield. As result, there is likely a
mesoscale corridor of greater tornado potential across from Mainland
Monroe County northeastward into southern Palm Beach County.
Water-loaded downbursts are also possible across much of south FL.
..Mosier/Goss.. 06/12/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...KEY...TBW...
LAT...LON 25138100 25568138 25868172 26208222 26718212 27158120
27238021 26157992 24998038 25138100