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Mesoscale Discussion 1180 | |
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Mesoscale Discussion 1180 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1158 AM CDT Thu Jun 06 2024 Areas affected...portions of eastern New York into eastern Pennsylvania and New Jersey Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 061658Z - 061830Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage and intensity through the afternoon across portions of the Hudson Valley into the Mid Atlantic. 40-55 mph wind gusts are the main threat with the stronger storms. 60+ mph gusts will likely be more isolated, so a WW issuance is not currently expected. DISCUSSION...Efficient diurnal heating is supporting the breach of convective temperatures (i.e. upper 70s/low 80s F) across portions of the Mid Atlantic, as a 500 mb vort max also approaches the Hudson Valley. MRMS mosaic radar data suggests that convective initiation appears underway across portions of central NY into central and eastern PA. These storms are developing amid a moist and heated low-level airmass, but with poor (5.5-6 C/km) tropospheric lapse rates. As such, the rate of increasing thunderstorm intensity will be strongly dependent on continued surface heating and further steepening of boundary layer lapse rates through the afternoon. Multicellular to perhaps transient supercellular storm modes are expected, as modest west-southwesterly mid-level flow atop weaker low-level winds will support small low-level hodographs, but with some mid-level elongation. Strong wind gusts in the 45-55 mph range (capable of localized damage) are expected with the stronger storms. However, the overall severe threat appears to be more isolated, so a WW issuance is not currently expected. ..Squitieri/Smith.. 06/06/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...BUF...CTP... LAT...LON 40217445 39987471 39857503 39797548 39857599 39957632 40147658 41137620 42897605 43997584 43977523 43477439 42447393 41237414 40217445 |
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