Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1176

   Mesoscale Discussion 1176
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0302 PM CDT Wed Jun 05 2024

   Areas affected...much of central Minnesota into northwestern
   Wisconsin

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 052002Z - 052200Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorm activity will continue to develop
   and overspread the region through 5-7 PM CDT, accompanied by locally
   strong to severe surface gusts.

   DISCUSSION...Mid-level cooling and lift within the exit region of a
   seasonably strong (70-90 kt around 500 mb) jet digging across the
   northern Great Plains is contributing to steepening
   lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates spreading east-southeast of the
   Red River Valley through much of northern and central Minnesota. 
   Beneath this regime, a deepening mixed boundary layer remains
   sufficiently moist to support CAPE in excess of 500 J/kg, with an
   increase in thunderstorm development ongoing in the wake of
   preceding thunderstorm activity overspreading the Minnesota
   Arrowhead through northwestern Wisconsin vicinity.  As thunderstorms
   continue to slowly increase in number and intensify in the peak
   afternoon heating, downward mixing of stronger momentum to the
   surface will contribute to increasing potential for strong to widely
   scattered severe gusts, particularly with storms overspreading
   central Minnesota into northwestern Wisconsin through 22-00Z.

   ..Kerr/Smith.. 06/05/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...ABR...

   LAT...LON   47189448 46009091 44799147 44679366 45179535 46159662
               47189448