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Mesoscale Discussion 956 | |
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Mesoscale Discussion 0956 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0441 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024 Areas affected...Northwest Kansas into Nebraska and far northeast Colorado Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 252141Z - 252345Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms across Nebraska and far northeast Colorado will gradually intensify through early evening with an increase in storm coverage expected across northwest Kansas in the coming hours. One or more watches will likely be needed for these regions to address these concerns given a destabilizing convective environment. DISCUSSION...Over the past hour, initially high-based convection developing across the central High Plains has intensified to severe limits with a 1.0 inch hailstone recently reported out of northeast CO. Despite marginal moisture return thus far (dewpoints in the upper 40s to low 50s), cold temperatures aloft are supporting MLCAPE values upwards of 1000 J/kg downstream across much of NE. Continued northward moisture advection through early evening will steadily improve buoyancy, which should result in a gradual intensification of ongoing convection as it moves east. Initially discrete cells should see some degree of upscale growth given dry low-level conditions that will promote cold pool expansion over the next couple of hours. Strong mid-level flow sampled by regional VWPs should promote storm organization into one or more linear segments with an increasing severe wind threat. To the south across northwest KS and far eastern CO, GOES visible imagery shows steady vertical development within a broad cumulus field in the vicinity of the deepening surface low. While some MLCIN remains in place, continued low-level moistening/heating combined with steady mesoscale ascent near the low should promote thunderstorm development in the next couple of hours. 50-knot deep-layer shear should promote initially discrete cells with an attendant risk for large hail (possibly up to 2.0 inches in diameter). Trends will be monitored for both regions, and one or more watches will likely be needed in the coming 1-2 hours. ..Moore/Smith.. 05/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OAX...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...BOU...CYS... LAT...LON 38780127 39000160 40010235 40300288 40440328 40560364 40820393 41250398 41950372 42630297 42810241 42960151 42970032 42839922 42419851 41959816 41329796 40219803 39649848 39259895 38730044 38670098 38780127 |
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