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Mesoscale Discussion 935 | |
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Mesoscale Discussion 0935 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0319 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024 Areas affected...central and northern IN Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 242019Z - 242215Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...A risk for localized wind damage via 50-65 mph gusts may develop across north-central and northern IN during the next few hours. The expected severe coverage will likely preclude the need for a small severe thunderstorm watch. DISCUSSION...Surface analysis indicates a warm and adequately moist boundary layer is located over Indiana featuring lower 80s temperatures and 60-64 deg F dewpoints. This airmass is immediately east of a residual gust front/outflow from an earlier MCS that has progressed eastward and extends from southwestern Lower MI south-southwestward into east-central IL. The WSR-88D VAD data from Syracuse, IN and Indianapolis, IN show relatively weak flow (less than 20 kt) in the lowest 4-5 km. Given the moderate instability but deep-layer shear favoring mainly linear modes/multicells, expecting a continuation of episodic intensification and weakening to the more intense multicells over the next few hours across central and northern IN. Although marginally severe hail cannot be ruled out, it seems the greater hazard will be localized gusts perhaps peaking in the 50-65 mph range. ..Smith/Guyer.. 05/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND... LAT...LON 40188717 41498621 41688587 41668548 41368517 39908582 39718606 39618653 39818695 40188717 |
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