|
Mesoscale Discussion 846 | |
< Previous MD | |
![]() |
|
Mesoscale Discussion 0846 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0928 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024 Areas affected...parts of south central Kansas and north central Oklahoma Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 260... Valid 200228Z - 200430Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 260 continues. SUMMARY...Intensifying thunderstorm development becoming focused near the central into eastern Kansas/Oklahoma state border vicinity may pose an increasing risk for severe hail and wind into the overnight hours. Trends are being monitored for an additional severe weather watch. DISCUSSION...To the east of a surface low over the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandle vicinity, area VWP data confirm southerly low-level jet strengthening to 50+ kt is ongoing across northwest Texas toward the Medicine Lodge KS vicinity. An increase in new thunderstorm development is underway near the Kansas/Oklahoma border vicinity to the south of Medicine Lodge, in response to strengthening lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection and lift of seasonably moist air characterized by CAPE up to around 3000 J/kg. As warmer and more strongly capping elevated mixed-layer air continues to advect northeastward across Oklahoma, it appears that an increasingly better-defined mid-level baroclinic zone (roughly around 700 mb) near the central into eastern Kansas/Oklahoma state border vicinity will become the focus for stronger convection into the 05-07Z time frame. This could include another upscale growing and organizing convective cluster, in the presence of seasonably strong shear. ..Kerr.. 05/20/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC... LAT...LON 37389894 37459798 37269537 36049548 35879764 36289899 36849964 37389894 |
|
Top/All Mesoscale Discussions/Forecast Products/Home |