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Mesoscale Discussion 842 | |
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Mesoscale Discussion 0842 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0700 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024 Areas affected...south central/southeastern Kansas and north central/northeastern Oklahoma Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 260...262... Valid 200000Z - 200230Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 260, 262 continues. SUMMARY...Organizing convective clusters accompanied by potentially strong, damaging wind gusts may increasingly impact areas east of the Interstate 35 corridor of southeastern Kansas and northeastern Oklahoma after 10 PM. Trends are being monitored for an additional severe weather watch across northeastern Oklahoma. DISCUSSION...Convective evolution into late evening remains somewhat unclear. As a low amplitude mid-level short wave progresses across central Kansas toward the lower Missouri Valley, mid-level warming is forecast across much of Oklahoma. Coupled with the onset of boundary-layer cooling, this will contribute to increasing inhibition, with the nose of a strengthening southerly low-level jet (50+ kt around 850 mb) becoming focused over southwestern/south central Kansas near Medicine Loge. However, a corridor of higher moisture content air remains focused east of the dryline through areas near/just east of the Interstate 35 corridor. Supported by inflow of this air, with CAPE up to around 3000 J/kg, ongoing convection may continue to grow upscale and organize further during the next few hours, and potentially begin to impact portions of southeastern Kansas/northeastern Oklahoma as early as 03-05Z. ..Kerr/Smith.. 05/20/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN... LAT...LON 38399682 37879553 37079548 36369593 35539719 35769820 36219846 36879823 37409819 38189801 38399682 |
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