Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 834

   Mesoscale Discussion 0834
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0235 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024

   Areas affected...Southeast Florida

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 258...

   Valid 191935Z - 192130Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 258
   continues.

   SUMMARY...The threat for severe hail and damaging winds is gradually
   spreading southward along the southeastern Florida coast. Areas that
   have not yet seen thunderstorm activity should see the severe threat
   increase in the coming hours.

   DISCUSSION...Latest imagery from KMLB and surface observations show
   an outflow boundary pushing southward along the southeastern FL
   coast. This outflow continues to initiate, and quickly undercut,
   convection as storms move east off shore. Despite the undercutting
   nature of the front, splitting supercells have been observed given
   favorable elongated hodographs with severe hail reported over the
   past hour or so. New convection (including the potential for
   splitting supercells) should continue to develop along the boundary
   as it migrates south where temperatures in the low to mid 90s are
   supporting SBCAPE in excess of 4000 J/kg (per recent RAP
   mesoanalyses). Further south, a few attempts at convective
   initiation are noted along a sea breeze boundary draped from roughly
   Fort Lauderdale to Homestead, FL. Sustained convection may initiate
   after a few more attempts within the next 1-2 hours, but the exact
   timing and coverage of storms is uncertain given weaker forcing for
   ascent along this boundary. Regardless, the potential for strong to
   severe thunderstorms (with an attendant hail/wind threat) should
   continue, if not increase, across much of Watch 258 given improving
   thermodynamic conditions.

   ..Moore.. 05/19/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...

   LAT...LON   26128002 25738010 25508017 25298046 25288059 25338072
               25518083 25678085 25838078 25978069 26148069 26328073
               26458082 26568094 26868097 27128084 27268052 27368034
               27328016 27238005 27098002 26617996 26128002