Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 817

   Mesoscale Discussion 0817
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0532 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024

   Areas affected...Southern Alabama and the Florida Peninsula

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 254...

   Valid 172232Z - 180000Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 254 continues.

   SUMMARY...A few severe thunderstorms are expected to persist through
   the evening with a threat for all severe hazards.

   DISCUSSION...A cluster of storms with embedded supercell structures
   continues to move east along the Alabama/Florida border. The EVX VWP
   shows around 300 m2/s2 of 0-1 km SRH with a 35 to 40 knot low-level
   jet. This strengthening low-level flow is also resulting in
   additional convection developing off the Gulf (which can be seen
   from Okaloosa to Washington counties around 2230Z. This will likely
   continue to support a messy storm mode which, combined with very
   weak low-level lapse rates (per 18Z LIX VWP), are the primary
   limiting factor to a greater tornado/hail threat. However, given the
   strong shear present, a tornado threat will continue through the
   evening, particularly with the lead cell moving through eastern
   Holmes county at 2230Z.

   ..Bentley.. 05/17/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...TAE...MOB...

   LAT...LON   30458804 31158670 31178538 30958470 30678454 30468513
               30318596 30288684 30278776 30458804