Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 794

   Mesoscale Discussion 0794
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0301 PM CDT Wed May 15 2024

   Areas affected...Oklahoma Panhandle...Texas Panhandle...and far
   eastern New Mexico

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 152001Z - 152130Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...Watch possible this afternoon as potential for damaging
   winds and large hail increases.

   DISCUSSION...Visible satellite shows areas of cu developing across
   portions of eastern New Mexico into the Texas and Oklahoma
   Panhandles. Trends in CAM guidance and morning/afternoon WoFS runs
   show medium confidence in storm initiation across the Texas
   Panhandle by 20-21z. Temperatures are in the mid to upper 80s with
   steep mid-level lapse rates around 8.5-9 C/km. Surface objective
   analysis shows MLCAPE around 1000-2000 J/kg from the Texas Panhandle
   into western Oklahoma with mid-level capping remaining, though
   surface temperatures in the mid 80s should remove the cap per the
   19z AMA sounding. High-based convection will initially pose a risk
   of severe winds, given deeply mixed profiles and large dew point
   depressions. A watch may be needed prior to 21z.

   ..Thornton/Thompson.. 05/15/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...LUB...AMA...MAF...PUB...ABQ...

   LAT...LON   34960335 35760348 36430323 36900277 37050161 37140048
               36980008 35990000 33509992 33210037 32870142 32850193
               32870249 33320289 34960335