Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 755

   Mesoscale Discussion 0755
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0837 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024

   Areas affected...Portions of Central into East Texas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 121337Z - 121530Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...Large hail and isolated damaging winds are possible with
   elevated storms in central Texas. Gradual intensification is
   possible as is additional storm development. Timing of this is not
   yet clear. A watch is possible depending on convective trends.

   DISCUSSION...Modest warm advection at low levels and gradual height
   falls from the approaching trough from the west will likely continue
   to support storm maintenance/development along and near a warm front
   stretching from the upper Texas Gulf Coast to the Edwards Plateau.
   Effective shear of greater than 50 kts and steep lapse rates
   observed in the 12Z DRT sounding suggest that storms, at least
   occasionally supercellular, would be capable of producing large
   hail. An isolated damaging gust is possible, but should be limited
   by the presently stable conditions near the surface. With time,
   continued theta-e advection and muted surface heating should help to
   destabilize the environment and storms will eventually become
   near/surface-based. Storm coverage is uncertain in the short term,
   but a watch may eventually become necessary as coverage and
   intensity is expected to increase by the afternoon. Trends will be
   monitored.

   ..Wendt/Thompson.. 05/12/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...

   LAT...LON   30839838 31459817 31719525 31389457 30949470 30509593
               30369733 30469769 30839838