Mesoscale Discussion 0737
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0700 PM CDT Thu May 09 2024
Areas affected...southeastern Ohio and West Virginia
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 100000Z - 100200Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Local/isolated risk for strong wind gusts will persist for
a few hours. WW not anticipated.
DISCUSSION...Latest radar shows an uptick in convection from
southern Ohio to northern West Virginia, in the vicinity of a
southeastern Ohio surface low, and attendant baroclinic zones.
Ahead of the front, RAP-based objective analysis suggests that
diurnal heating has pushed mixed-layer CAPE to near 1000 J/kg across
the Ohio River Valley area, which is contributing to the convective
uptick, ahead of the mid-level vort max crossing Lake Erie/Ohio at
this time.
Moderately strong west-northwesterly flow through the lower and
middle troposphere is indicated across this region, which may
support some additional, small-scale convective organization.
Attendant severe risk -- primarily in the form of locally
gusty/damaging winds with stronger convective elements -- will
likely continue for the next 2 to 3 hours. Thereafter, as nocturnal
cooling commences, severe risk is expected to gradually diminish.
As such, limited risk -- both in temporally and in terms of
magnitude -- will likely preclude any need for WW issuance.
..Goss/Hart.. 05/10/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...ILN...
LAT...LON 38908359 39228308 39638161 39837995 39417924 38597959
37848057 37908187 38548299 38908359