Mesoscale Discussion 0735 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0502 PM CDT Thu May 09 2024 Areas affected...portions of central Texas Concerning...Tornado Watch 221... Valid 092202Z - 092330Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 221 continues. SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across Tornado Watch 221. 2-4 inch diameter hail and 60-85 mph wind gusts are the main concerns, though a tornado cannot be completely ruled out. DISCUSSION...Three large, intense supercells, with echo tops exceeding 50 kft, continue to progress southeastward across central portions of TX, with the storms southwest of the Metroplex having a history of producing 2-3 inch diameter hail. Ahead of the storms, upper 80s F/mid 70s F surface temperatures/dewpoints, overspread by 8 C/km mid-level lapse rates, are boosting MLCAPE to the 3000-5000 J/kg range (per 21Z mesoanalysis). Coinciding with this extreme buoyancy are elongated hodographs and 50-70 kts of effective bulk shear. The preceding CAPE/shear parameter space suggests that intense supercells with 2-4 inch diameter hailstones and severe gusts (perhaps up to 85 mph) should continue over the next several hours, as also suggested by the latest Warn-on-Forecast ensemble output. The severe gusts will be most likely with any supercells that can merge and support cold pool development. Storms appear to progress immediately behind a surface boundary, that combined with weak low-level speed an directional shear (per recent regional VADs) should temper the tornado threat to a degree. However, given the extreme buoyancy, any supercell that can move ahead of the boundary could potentially produce a tornado. Later this evening, some upscale growth of the supercells into one or more MCSs appears likely, and the severe wind threat should increase accordingly. ..Squitieri.. 05/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT... LAT...LON 31299982 32329845 32679736 32549680 32119666 31669682 31349735 31059810 30819890 30729977 31299982