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Mesoscale Discussion 729 | |
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Mesoscale Discussion 0729 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1157 AM CDT Thu May 09 2024 Areas affected...much of northwest into northern Texas and toward the Red River Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 091657Z - 091930Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Storms are expected to increase in coverage through the afternoon, with very large hail possible from northwest into northern Texas. Damaging winds will also be possible. DISCUSSION...Surface analysis shows a stationary front extending from near Shreveport LA westward across the Metroplex and toward a weak surface low near San Angelo, TX. The air mass is very moist and unstable across the entire region, as can be seen from the 12Z FWD sounding where elevated MUCAPE north of the boundary is around 4000 J/kg with steep midlevel lapse rates. Further indicative of the quality of the elevated instability north of the front are robust cells already forming over Young and Archer Counties, which are situated atop relatively cool/dry surface northeasterlies. Deep-layer shear may be effectively augmented for cells moving eastward along the boundary later today as the air mass along it heats, and around with 60 kt shear. Severe cells are also expected to form near the weak surface low or close to the dryline/stationary front intersection, with both very large hail and damaging winds as storms increase in coverage. ..Jewell/Smith.. 05/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT... LAT...LON 32829971 33919838 34049730 33989676 33669652 33129647 31819694 31429746 31329796 31189874 31159934 31140004 31390029 31830036 32260018 32829971 |
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