Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 696

   Mesoscale Discussion 0696
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1101 AM CDT Wed May 08 2024

   Areas affected...Southwest/south-central MO...northeast
   OK...northwest AR

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 202...

   Valid 081601Z - 081730Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 202
   continues.

   SUMMARY...With additional storms gradually developing south of WW
   202, and the overall environment becoming increasingly favorable for
   a tornado threat during the afternoon, a new tornado watch that
   replaces the southern part of WW 202 will be needed prior to its 19Z
   scheduled expiration.

   DISCUSSION...While the bulk of supercell clustering has persisted in
   central MO, additional storms have gradually developed near the
   OK/KS/MO border area, just southwest of WW 202. This activity is
   within the low-level warm theta-e advection regime, east of the
   southeast-sagging cold front that lags in southeast KS to central
   OK. This development has been slow and sub-severe thus far. But as
   additional boundary-layer warming continues, especially across
   eastern OK, along with strengthening low-level convergence as the
   front impinges, this leading activity should intensify during the
   early afternoon. While very large hail and isolated severe gusts
   will be possible, the presence of 35-45 kt low-level southwesterlies
   per SGF/INX/SRX VWP data will yield favorable hodograph enlargement
   for a few tornadic storms. Potential for a strong tornado may become
   maximized near the composite outflow/warm front across southwest to
   south-central MO.

   ..Grams.. 05/08/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...TSA...

   LAT...LON   37899253 37769168 37009133 36619138 36059259 35839431
               35859505 36059555 36539550 37209486 37749403 37879368
               37899253