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Mesoscale Discussion 415 | |
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Mesoscale Discussion 0415 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1235 PM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024 Areas affected...southeast Alabama...southwest Georgia and the Florida Panhandle Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 101735Z - 101900Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Severe potential is expected to increase from the Florida Panhandle northward across far southeast Alabama into southwest Georgia this afternoon. Damaging gusts and tornadoes will be possible as convection develops/spreads east into these areas. DISCUSSION...Stronger surface heating is noted across the MCD area amid diffuse upper clouds and increasing midlevel clouds. While boundary-layer dewpoints are modest in the low to mid 60s F, some minor increases in moisture also are possible over the next few hours. This should result in modest destabilization amid strong deep-layer shear as the bow echo currently near Mobile Bay continues to shift east this afternoon. With time, low-level shear is expected to increase. This will result in more favorable/enlarged low-level hodographs supporting tornadoes, in addition to damaging wind potential, both along the apex of the bow and with any cells ahead of/merging into the bow. A tornado watch will likely be needed within the hour across portions of the MCD area. ..Leitman/Guyer.. 04/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB... LAT...LON 31978622 31948499 31778405 30998397 30168415 29498442 29458510 29648564 29998643 31978622 |
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