Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 408

   Mesoscale Discussion 0408
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0158 AM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024

   Areas affected...Middle TX Coastal Plain into Southeast TX

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 98...99...

   Valid 100658Z - 100830Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 98, 99
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Threat for damaging wind gusts continues from the Middle
   TX Coastal Plain into Southeast TX. An increase in the damaging wind
   gust potential is anticipated across southeast TX over the next few
   hours.

   DISCUSSION...Recent regional radar imagery depicts a convective line
   extending from Fayette County in the middle TX coastal plain
   south-southwestward into Brooks County in deep south TX. Updrafts
   within the northern portion of this line have remain relatively
   strong over the past hour or so. Some sharpening of the reflectivity
   gradient has also been noted within this portion of the line as
   well. The downstream airmass across southeast TX is characterized by
   steep mid-level lapse rates (noted in the 04Z CRP sounding) and
   strong buoyancy (i.e. MLCAPE over 2000 J/kg in latest mesoanalysis).
   Moderate vertical shear exist across the region as well, with the
   HGX VAD recently sampling 51 kt of 0-6 km bulk shear. This
   combination of buoyancy and shear should be more than sufficient for
   maintenance of the ongoing line, with a continued threat for
   damaging wind gusts and/or large hail. 

   There is also the potential for more organization within this line
   as the primary shortwave currently over the southern continues to
   progress eastward, contributing to increase large-scale forcing for
   ascent. Additionally, an outflow boundary from early convection
   stretches across the region, evidenced by wind shift from southerly
   across the upper TX Coast to more northerly/northeasterly farther
   north. This boundary could act as a corridor of greater severe
   potential, particularly for damaging gusts, as it provides
   additional mesoscale ascent.

   ..Mosier.. 04/10/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP...EWX...

   LAT...LON   28519740 29229742 29819717 30239635 30029495 29109488
               28499608 28369682 28519740