The forecasts depicted below combine WPC forecasts of fronts, isobars and high/low pressure centers with the NDFD depiction of expected weather type for days .5 to 2.5 ahead. Each frame represents 6 hours. A short range forecast discussion for the CONUS is available below the short term loop.
Short Term Forecast Frontal Systems and Isobars Loop
Short Range Forecast Discussion
FXUS01 KWBC 081950 PMDSPD Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 349 PM EDT Wed May 08 2024 Valid 00Z Thu May 09 2024 - 00Z Sat May 11 2024 ...Severe thunderstorms and flash flooding are likely from parts of the Ozarks to the Tennessee Valley tonight before the severe weather threat shifts south on Thursday toward the Southern Plains and Southeast... ...Heavy mountain snow and and moderate lower elevation rain gradually wanes across the Northern Rockies on Thursday... ...Above average temperatures remain across southern Texas and the Southeast, while warmth also begins to build into the Northwest late-week... Active weather is ongoing and expected to continue through tonight across parts of the middle/lower Mississippi valleys, Tennessee Valley, and into the southern Appalachians. The atmospheric setup includes an upper low over the Northern Plains with associated troughing extending into the Southwest, allowing for moist southerly flow into the Mid-South. A quasi-stationary boundary extending into the Ohio Valley and detached outflow boundary in the Tennessee Valley will provide a focus for storms to develop and track along. Numerous thunderstorms are expected to become severe and possibly contain very large to giant hail, damaging wind gusts, and some strong tornadoes possible. The Storm Prediction Center has issued a Moderate Risk (level 4/5) of severe weather between south-central Missouri to Middle Tennessee and south-central Kentucky. Additionally, as storms overlap with saturated soil from earlier rainfall and train behind one another, numerous instances of flash flooding are possible. The greatest risk for flash flooding is across southwestern Kentucky and Middle Tennessee, where a Moderate Risk (level 3/4) of Excessive Rainfall is in effect. By Thursday, the overnight thunderstorm activity is anticipated to sink southward and impact areas from the Southern Plains to the Southeast. Very large hail appears probable across parts of central Texas and into the ArkLaTex region, with a broader region of severe hail and damaging wind potential extending through the lower Mississippi Valley into the Southeast. Areas of flash flooding are also possible along this corridor stretching between eastern Texas and central Georgia. As the associated cold front continues to push south and east on Friday, the scattered thunderstorms threat is expected to linger, but remain confined to the Southeast. A long duration heavy precipitation event is also ongoing throughout the Northern Rockies and parts of the northern High Plains through at least Thursday. The upper low over the Northern Plains continues to funnel moisture into favorable upslope regions of Montana and Wyoming. Heavy snow remains probable into tonight across the higher elevated ranges, with moderate rainfall in the lower elevations. As the upper low weakens and becomes more elongated, precipitation is also expected to weaken while also sliding southward into the central/southern Rockies. Additionally, the well below average temperatures are forecast to remain throughout the Rockies with a warmer trend beginning by the end of the week. Warm weather for the final few days of the workweek can be expected across the Northwest, Southeast, Gulf Coast, and southern Texas. Locations in these regions can anticipate highs around 10 to 15 degrees above average, with a few daily record highs potentially being tied/broken. As far as actual high temperatures go, southern Texas will be by far the hottest with highs into the triple digits and upper 90s. Low-to-mid 90s are forecast across Florida on Thursday, with 80s and 90s throughout the rest of the Gulf Coast and Southeast. Meanwhile, the Pacific Northwest will also need to break out the summer clothing and stay hydrated as highs soar into the 80s by Friday, with low 90s possible in localized interior valley locations from central California to Oregon. Snell Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php $$
Depicted Weather Types
- NDFD Rain (Chance) – There is chance of measurable rain (≥0.01″) at the valid time.
- NDFD Rain (Likely) – Measurable rain (≥0.01″) is likely at the valid time.
- NDFD Snow (Chance) – There is chance of measurable snowfall (≥0.01″ liquid equivalent) at the valid time.
- NDFD Snow (Likely) – Measurable snow (≥0.01″ liquid equivalent) is likely at the valid time.
- NDFD Mix (Chance) – There is a chance of measurable mixed precipitation (≥0.01″ liquid equivalent) at the valid time. “Mixed” can refer to precipitation where a combination of rain and snow, rain and sleet, or snow and sleet are forecast.
- NDFD Mix (Likely) – Measurable mixed precipitation (≥0.01″ liquid equivalent) is likely at the valid time. “Mixed” can refer to precipitation where a combination of rain and snow, rain and sleet, or snow and sleet are forecast.
- NDFD Ice (Chance) – There is a chance of measurable sleet and/or freezing rain (≥0.01″ liquid equivalent) at the valid time.
- NDFD Ice (Likely) – Measurable sleet and/or freezing rain (≥0.01″ liquid equivalent) is likely at the valid time.
- NDFD T-Storm (Chance) – There is a chance of thunderstorms at the valid time. Areas are displayed with diagonal hatching enclosed in a dark red border.
- NDFD T-Storm (Likely and/or Severe) – Thunderstorms are likely and/or the potential exists for some storms to reach severe levels at the valid time.