The Storm Prediction Center convective weather outlook is part of the National Weather Service (NWS) and the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). Their mission is to provide accurate forecasts and monitor the timing of thunderstorms and severe storms in the United States. The SPC provides convective outlooks on Day 1, Day 2, and Day 3 that reflect the overall level of severe weather hazard outlooks through a list of forecast statistics. This data identifies areas at risk of mild thunderstorms and severe thunderstorms. For more information on how to read this map, please see the bottom of this page.
Convective Outlook Day 1
SPC Day 1 Outlook Discussion
ACUS01 KWNS 230053 SWODY1 SPC AC 230051 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0751 PM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025 Valid 230100Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS AS WELL AS THE UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible tonight across portions of the southern/central Plains, lower/mid Missouri Valley, and Ohio Valley. Large to very large hail and severe/damaging winds should be the main threats. ...Southern and central Plains... Evening water vapor imagery shows a convectively augmented mid-level vort max ahead of a broad upper trough over the Rockies, moving into the southern/central High Plains. Ascent from this features is forecast to intensify this evening aiding in the development of 30-40 kt southerly low-level jet. Persistent southeasterly flow should continue transporting mid 60s to low 70s F dewpoints into parts of the central and southern Plains tonight. The intensification of the low-level jet this evening and associated moist advection will allow scattered to numerous storms to develop within a moderate unstable environment after 03z. 35-50 kt of deep-layer shear will favor a mix of organized multicells and supercells. Large to very large hail is a possibility with initial, likely elevated, supercells into the early overnight. Increasing ascent and the low-level jet should favor upscale growth into a cluster or MCS over portions of KS/OK tonight. Severe gusts will likely become the primary hazard. A couple of tornadoes are also possible given large low-level hodographs and some potential for supercells or embedded mesovorticies. These storms should continue eastward toward the KS/MO/OK border by 12z tomorrow. ...Missouri Valley and Upper Midwest... Broad and weak low-level warm advection is expected to strengthen this evening near an east-west front draped over portions of the mid Missouri Valley and Midwest. Convection currently developing along and south of the front should continue to increase in coverage and intensity tonight aided by weak ascent from several shortwave perturbations passing overhead. Moderate buoyancy, steep mid-level laps rates and some veering with height could support organized multicells or a few supercell structures capable of hail and damaging gusts. Some upscale growth is expected tonight with one or more clusters persisting across the Missouri Valley and into the central Plains. Isolated hail and damaging gusts are possible. ...Ohio and Tennessee Valleys... Several lines/clusters of strong to occasional severe storms are ongoing this evening and expected to persist into early tonight. Aided by ascent from a broad shortwave trough modestly enhanced southwesterly low/mid-level winds will persist, supporting the loosely organized multicell clusters. Instability is forecast to gradually wane with the loss of diurnal heating, though a moist boundary layer should support occasional damaging gusts through this evening with the stronger clusters. ..Lyons.. 09/23/2025 $$ |
Convective Outlook Day 2
SPC Day 2 Outlook Discussion
ACUS02 KWNS 221953 SWODY2 SPC AC 221951 Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0251 PM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA...MUCH OF ARKANSAS...AND FAR NORTHEAST TEXAS... CORRECTED FOR HEADLINE ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are possible from the southern Plains to the Tennessee Valley on Tuesday. The strongest thunderstorm activity is expected across eastern Oklahoma into northeastern Texas and Arkansas, where supercells capable of all severe hazards are possible by afternoon. ...Eastern Oklahoma into Arkansas and northeast Texas... A positively tilted large-scale trough will move slowly south-southeastward across the central Rockies and adjacent Plains through the period. Downstream of the trough, a convectively augmented midlevel impulse and accompanying 50 kt jet will track eastward across KS and northern OK during the day. A related MCS will be advancing eastward across eastern KS, northern OK, and southwest MO on Tuesday morning -- at the nose of a 40 kt low-level jet. Instances of severe wind and hail will be possible with this activity, especially along its southern flank where buoyancy will be maximized. In the wake of these storms, a weak surface low will track eastward across northern OK, while a southward-extending cold front moves slowly eastward from central into eastern OK. Despite early-day convective overturning across parts of eastern OK, diurnal heating amid lower 70s dewpoints should erode inhibition and support widely scattered thunderstorms both along/immediately ahead of the front and along residual outflow boundaries. Strong surface-based buoyancy and around 40 kt of effective shear oriented oblique to the front should initially favor a few semi-discrete supercells from eastern OK into AR. These storms will pose a risk of large hail, severe wind gusts, and perhaps a couple tornadoes -- given clockwise curved low-level hodographs (upwards of 200 m2/s2 effective SRH). Storms should gradually grow upscale as they move southeastward into the evening/overnight hours. Higher wind/tornado probabilities were considered over eastern OK into AR given the favorable environment, though continued uncertainty regarding early-day convection and implications on storm mode limit forecast confidence at this time. ...Central Texas... Moderate instability is forecast across central/northern Texas Tuesday afternoon with eroding inhibition by mid-afternoon. Shear will be relatively weak, but will increase during the afternoon/evening as a mid-level jet streak drifts south. The most favorable zone for thunderstorm development will be the triple point where the cold front intersects a dryline across North Texas. However, additional isolated storms may also develop along the dryline and cold front. Isolated large hail and damaging wind gusts will be the primary threat from these storms Tuesday afternoon/evening. ...Mid-Atlantic... Downstream of a broad midlevel trough, widely scattered thunderstorms will be evolving in a moist/moderately unstable air mass during the afternoon. Around 20-30 kt of deep-layer shear may promote a couple loosely organized clusters with a risk of locally damaging gusts. ..Weinman.. 09/22/2025 $$ |
Convective Outlook Day 3
SPC Day 3 Outlook Discussion
ACUS03 KWNS 221926 SWODY3 SPC AC 221925 Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 PM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO SOUTH TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms with occasional damaging wind gusts are expected from the Middle Ohio Valley to south Texas on Wednesday. ...Discussion... A positively tilted large-scale trough will move slowly east-southeastward over the Mid MS Valley and central/southern Plains on Wednesday. Within the base of the large-scale trough, a shortwave trough and related 40-50-kt midlevel jet will advance eastward from the southern/central Plains into the Mid MS/Lower OH Valleys through the afternoon. At the same time, a weak/broad low-level cyclone will track northeastward along the OH Valley, while a southwestward-extending cold front moves gradually east-southeastward across the OH/Mid MS Valleys and southern Plains. Numerous thunderstorms will likely be ongoing along the cold front and ahead of the surface cyclone on Wednesday morning. Despite lingering nocturnal inhibition, damaging wind gusts will be possible with any well-established convective clusters and line segments from the Lower OH Valley into northeast TX. Ahead of this activity, diurnal heating amid lower 70s dewpoints will result in a moderately unstable air mass by mid afternoon. This should favor modest re-intensification of thunderstorms along/immediately ahead of the east-southeastward-moving cold front. While the strongest midlevel westerly flow and related deep-layer shear accompanying the shortwave trough will be confined to the cool side of the cold front (especially over TX), a couple strong to severe wind gusts will be possible with multicell clusters that impinge on the warm/moist air mass. Deep-layer shear will be stronger with northward extent across the OH/TN Valleys, though slightly weaker destabilization may tend to limit the overall severe threat. Nevertheless, loosely organized clusters capable of producing isolated wind damage will be possible, especially where diurnal heating is enhanced within cloud breaks. ..Weinman.. 09/22/2025 $$ |
Convective Outlook Day 4-8
SPC Day 4-8 Outlook Discussion
ACUS48 KWNS 220835 SWOD48 SPC AC 220833 Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0333 AM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025 Valid 251200Z - 301200Z ...DISCUSSION... A positively tilted mid-level trough around the Great Lakes on Thu/D4 will move across the Northeast by Fri/D5. A weak surface low will move through the eastern Great Lakes on Thursday with a cold front extending southwest from that low. Upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints ahead of the cold front will support some instability, but it will remain mostly weak amid weak lapse rates. Moderate mid-level southwesterly flow will provide ample shear for storm organization if pockets of greater instability can develop. At this time, it appears a few isolated strong to severe storms may be possible from the Carolinas to the Mid-Atlantic, but a more organized severe threat is not anticipated. On D5/Friday the remnant cold front will likely reside somewhere near the Southeast coast. A few stronger storms will be possible along this front on Friday before it pushes into the Atlantic on Friday night. In the wake of this cold front, high pressure will build into much of the eastern CONUS. This will result in low severe weather probabilities amid a dry, continental airmass. Rich low-level moisture will remain offshore into the early part of next week and keep severe weather potential low. ..Bentley.. 09/22/2025
Convective Weather Outlook Legend Data
- TSTM (light green) – General or non-severe thunderstorms – Delineates, to the right of a line, where a 10% or greater probability of thunderstorms is forecast during the valid period.
- 1-MRGL (dark green) – Marginal risk – An area of severe storms of either limited organization and longevity, or very low coverage and marginal intensity.
- 2-SLGT (yellow) – Slight risk – An area of organized severe storms, which is not widespread in coverage with varying levels of intensity.
- 3-ENH (orange) – Enhanced risk – An area of greater (relative to Slight risk) severe storm coverage with varying levels of intensity.
- 4-MDT (red) – Moderate risk – An area where widespread severe weather with several tornadoes and/or numerous severe thunderstorms is likely, some of which should be intense. This risk is usually reserved for days with several supercells producing intense tornadoes and/or very large hail. Or an intense squall line with widespread damaging winds.
- 5-HIGH (magenta) – High risk – An area where a severe weather outbreak is expected from either numerous intense and long-tracked tornadoes. Also, a long-lived derecho-producing thunderstorm complex that produces hurricane-force wind gusts and widespread damage. This risk is reserved for when high confidence exists in widespread coverage of severe weather with embedded instances of extreme severe. (i.e., violent tornadoes or very damaging convective wind events).
This data is courtesy from the Storm Prediction Center