The Storm Prediction Center convective weather outlook is part of the National Weather Service (NWS) and the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). Their mission is to provide accurate forecasts and monitor the timing of thunderstorms and severe storms in the United States. The SPC provides convective outlooks on Day 1, Day 2, and Day 3 that reflect the overall level of severe weather hazard outlooks through a list of forecast statistics. This data identifies areas at risk of mild thunderstorms and severe thunderstorms. For more information on how to read this map, please see the bottom of this page.
Convective Outlook Day 1
SPC Day 1 Outlook Discussion
ACUS01 KWNS 130524 SWODY1 SPC AC 130522 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1222 AM CDT Tue Oct 13 2026 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF KS/NORTHWEST MO INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered severe storms capable of large hail, damaging winds, and possibly a tornado are expected over portions of the central and southern Plains into the Lower Missouri Valley this afternoon into tonight. More isolated severe weather may occur from southwest Texas into the mid Mississippi Valley, and in parts of New York. ...Central/southern Plains into the Midwest... A deep mid/upper-level low is forecast to move slowly east-southeastward across the Great Basin and Desert Southwest through the period. Downstream of this low and attendant trough, a lee surface cyclone is forecast to meander across the south-central High Plains. A weak surface trough will extend southwest of the lee cyclone across the southern High Plains, while a nearly stationary front extends east-northeast across KS into northern MO through late afternoon. Despite generally modest midlevel lapse rates, seasonably strong heating and rich low-level moisture will support moderate to locally strong buoyancy (MLCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg) this afternoon, along/east of the surface trough across the southern Plains and along/south of the front across KS/MO. Scattered storm development is expected near KS/MO front by late afternoon, with at least isolated storms possible farther south into the southern High Plains. Moderate deep-layer shear downstream of the deep mid/upper-level low/trough will support organized storms, with initial supercell development possible. Strong to severe gusts and large hail are expected to be the primary hazards, though some increase in low-level shear/SRH by early evening could result in a tornado or two near the front and surface trough. Modest upscale growth will be possible later tonight across parts of KS/MO and western/southern IL, though longevity of the severe threat is uncertain due to increasing nocturnal stabilization with time. ...Parts of western/central NY... A low-amplitude midlevel shortwave trough will move quickly from the Great Lakes towards the Northeast later today. A surface low will move from northern MI into Ontario. Early-day clouds/precipitation will help to reinforce a nearly stationary front extending southeast of the low into parts of western/central NY. Relatively rich low-level moisture (with 60s F dewpoints) will be in place along and southwest of this front by afternoon, though modest heating and lapse rates will tend to limit destabilization. Increasing deep-layer flow and some low-level hodograph curvature will provide a favorable wind profile for organized convection, though potential for warm-sector development remains uncertain, due to the modest instability. Some threat for localized wind damage and possibly a brief tornado could accompany any sustained surface-based storms, though confidence in the magnitude and coverage of the threat remains low at this time. ..Dean/Chalmers.. 10/13/2026 $$ |
Convective Outlook Day 2
SPC Day 2 Outlook Discussion
ACUS02 KWNS 130517 SWODY2 SPC AC 130515 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1215 AM CDT Tue Oct 13 2026 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE OZARK PLATEAU...AND IN PARTS OF THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms capable of mainly damaging wind gusts are possible across portions of the southern Plains into the Ozark Plateau, and in the parts of the upper Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic Wednesday afternoon and evening. ...Synopsis... An upper low centered near the Four Corners Wednesday morning is forecast to gradually weaken while progressing into the central High Plains by early Thursday. Within the southeast periphery of the low, a vorticity maximum is expected to advance from the southern Rockies into the central High Plains in tandem with a 50-60 kt jet streak in the mid levels. Elsewhere, a series of vorticity maxima (some of convective origin) are forecast to translate from the mid-MS Valley to the southern Mid-Atlantic. At the surface, a cold front will move south through the Mid-Atlantic, OH and mid-MS Valleys, and into portions of the southern Plains. The western segment of the front over the southern Plains may eventually stall and perhaps retreat north Wednesday night in response to falling pressures over the central Plains. ...Southern Plains into the Ozark Plateau... Showers and thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing at 12Z Wednesday, along and ahead of the cold front, aided by modest warm advection and moisture transport along a weakening nocturnal low-level jet. The presence of a seasonably moist (e.g., dewpoints in the mid 60s to mid 70s F) and at least marginally unstable air mass will likely support the continuation of showers and thunderstorms through the day in some areas. On the southern fringe of any more persistent clouds and precipitation, stronger heating may contribute to corridors of moderate instability by afternoon where MLCAPE may approach 1500-2000 J/kg. That destabilization process will coincide with strengthening vertical shear and forcing for ascent preceding the southern Rockies disturbance, yielding an environment supportive of isolated strong to severe storms during the afternoon and evening. Damaging wind gusts appear to be the primary hazard with the best potential for a few occurrences of severe hail being in southwest TX. ...Upper Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic... Daytime heating combined with boundary-layer dewpoints in the mid 60s to low 70s F is expected to contribute to pockets of moderate instability with MLCAPE approaching 1000-1250 J/kg by mid-late afternoon ahead of the cold front. Aided by forcing for ascent preceding the series of vorticity maxima approaching from the west, thunderstorms are expected to develop and subsequently increase in areal coverage along the front at that time. Steepening low-level lapse rates coupled with strengthening west-southwesterly winds with height (yielding up to 35-40 kt of deep-layer shear) appear supportive of isolated severe storms capable of damaging wind gusts into evening. ..Mead.. 10/13/2026 $$ |
Convective Outlook Day 3
SPC Day 3 Outlook Discussion
ACUS03 KWNS 130709 SWODY3 SPC AC 130708 Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0208 AM CDT Tue Oct 13 2026 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE MID-MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms appear possible over portions of the mid- Mississippi and Ohio Valleys Thursday afternoon through night. ...Synopsis... A short-wave trough over SK/MB Thursday morning is forecast to undergo considerable amplification while translating into the Great Lakes late Thursday night/early Friday. Ahead of that feature, an upper low will weaken into an increasingly sheared open wave while accelerating from the central High Plains into the Midwest. At the surface, an area of low pressure is expected to develop along a poleward-advancing warm front from central or eastern KS through the mid-MS and OH Valleys to the lower Great Lakes. Meanwhile a trailing cold front will surge south through much of the southern Plains and into the lower-MS Valley. ...Mid-Mississippi and Ohio Valleys... Showers and thunderstorms may be ongoing at 12Z Thursday from portions of the central Plains into the mid-MS Valley within a zone of warm-air and moisture advection preceding the surface low. A subset of the early-day storms may persist through the day with associated cloud cover limiting daytime heating and resultant air mass destabilization in those areas. Where cloud breaks can occur, stronger diabatic heating coupled with boundary-layer dewpoints in the low to mid 70s may contribute to a corridor of moderate instability by afternoon, which would become a preferred zone of diurnally enhanced thunderstorm development. Both vertical shear and forcing for ascent are forecast to steadily strengthen from Thursday afternoon through night, leading to the potential for a fast-moving complex of storms to traverse the region with an associated risk for locally damaging wind gusts. ..Mead.. 10/13/2026 $$ |
Convective Outlook Day 4-8
SPC Day 4-8 Outlook Discussion
ACUS48 KWNS 130832 SWOD48 SPC AC 130830 Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0330 AM CDT Tue Oct 13 2026 Valid 161200Z - 211200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Day 4/Friday... An intense midlevel trough will progress from the Great Lakes to off the Atlantic Coast by Saturday morning. An associated surface low is forecast to develop from the lower Great Lakes to off the New England coast while a trailing cold front advances through much of the eastern CONUS. A moist and at least marginally unstable air mass is forecast in portions of the Mid-Atlantic by afternoon, with thunderstorms possible along and ahead of the front. Vertical shear is expected to be relatively strong, suggesting the potential for isolated severe weather. Level-1/Marginal Risk probabilities may be required in the subsequent Day 3 Outlook for this time period. ...Days 5 through 8/Saturday through Tuesday... A considerably drier and more stable low-level air mass will persist at many locations over the weekend with non-severe storms possible in portions of FL and the lower-CO Valley. By early next week, there is good model agreement that a midlevel trough will move into the western CONUS. In response, a deepening lee trough over the High Plains will lead to increasing moisture return, particularly over the southern Plains by Tuesday. However, no severe weather is expected through that time frame. ..Mead.. 10/13/2026
Convective Weather Outlook Legend Data
- TSTMÂ (light green) – General or non-severe thunderstorms – Delineates, to the right of a line, where a 10% or greater probability of thunderstorms is forecast during the valid period.
- 1-MRGL (dark green) – Marginal risk – An area of severe storms of either limited organization and longevity, or very low coverage and marginal intensity.
- 2-SLGT (yellow) – Slight risk – An area of organized severe storms, which is not widespread in coverage with varying levels of intensity.
- 3-ENHÂ (orange) – Enhanced risk – An area of greater (relative to Slight risk) severe storm coverage with varying levels of intensity.
- 4-MDT (red) – Moderate risk – An area where widespread severe weather with several tornadoes and/or numerous severe thunderstorms is likely, some of which should be intense. This risk is usually reserved for days with several supercells producing intense tornadoes and/or very large hail. Or an intense squall line with widespread damaging winds.
- 5-HIGH (magenta) – High risk – An area where a severe weather outbreak is expected from either numerous intense and long-tracked tornadoes. Also, a long-lived derecho-producing thunderstorm complex that produces hurricane-force wind gusts and widespread damage. This risk is reserved for when high confidence exists in widespread coverage of severe weather with embedded instances of extreme severe. (i.e., violent tornadoes or very damaging convective wind events).
This data is courtesy from the Storm Prediction Center