Southwest and Central FL Area Forecast Discussion
The area forecast discussion is issued from the NWS Tampa office and covers 15 counties across West Central and Southwest Florida, from Levy County to Lee County and east to Polk and Highlands Counties. Forecasts are routinely issued between the hours of 3 and 4 a.m. and again between 3 and 4 p.m., and are updated at anytime when conditions warrant.
FXUS62 KTBW 121841 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 141 PM EST Fri Dec 12 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... -Temperatures warm through the weekend, then cooler air returns early next week. -Hazardous marine conditions expected Sunday night through Monday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 139 PM EST Fri Dec 12 2025 High pressure remains over the region through today before shifting eastward this weekend as troughing deepens over the eastern half of the country and a frontal boundary moves into the southeast. This pattern shift will allow temperatures to warm into the mid/upper 70s (and even lower 80s in some spots) for both Saturday and Sunday afternoon while also pulling a warm front northward and bringing slight rain chances for the southern parts of the forecast area Saturday night. The next cold front will then push across the state late Sunday into Sunday night, with no rain expected. Cool and dry high pressure brings us a cooler start to the work week before a warming trend brings above normal temperatures for the rest of the week. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 139 PM EST Fri Dec 12 2025 VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period. && .MARINE... Issued at 139 PM EST Fri Dec 12 2025 Light east to southeast winds will remain across the waters through much of the weekend before a frontal boundary moves through late Sunday. Winds behind the boundary will become north and then northeast late Sunday through Monday, increasing to advisory levels before diminishing Tuesday through the rest of the week. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 139 PM EST Fri Dec 12 2025 No fire weather concerns as relative humidity values will remain above critical levels. Some patchy fog is expected tonight, mainly over inland locations. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 55 78 62 78 / 0 0 10 10 FMY 58 81 64 80 / 0 0 30 30 GIF 53 78 59 79 / 0 0 10 10 SRQ 55 79 62 78 / 0 0 10 10 BKV 44 78 53 78 / 0 0 0 0 SPG 60 77 65 75 / 0 0 10 10 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ Carlisle