Southwest and Central FL Area Forecast Discussion
The area forecast discussion is issued from the NWS Tampa office and covers 15 counties across West Central and Southwest Florida, from Levy County to Lee County and east to Polk and Highlands Counties
FXUS62 KTBW 021852 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 152 PM EST Thu Jan 2 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 147 PM EST Thu Jan 2 2025 High pressure has settled in over the region behind the last cold front that moved across the area. With the high pressure centered just to our northwest, light north-northeasterly winds have been seen at the surface. This morning's sounding showed a very dry airmass with only 0.23" PWATs. The lower and mid levels remain dry, with more moisture located in the upper levels. Because of this, we are seeing only some scattered high clouds streaming across the Sunshine State today. The dry airmass along with the light winds will lead to further cooling again tonight. Overnight lows will bottom out in the upper 30s across the Nature Coast with temperatures in the 40s expected across Central and Southwest Florida. Some areas of frost are possible across northern Florida early on Friday morning. The next several days will be a roller coaster with a series of fronts moving through the region. An upper level short wave will pass to the north of the forecast area tomorrow, dragging a rather dry cold front across the state on Friday night. This reinforcing shot of cold air will keep temperatures across the state below normal to start the weekend. Afternoon highs will only reach into the 60s on Saturday areawide, with lows Saturday night once again falling into the upper 30s and 40s. Behind the front, weak ridging will set up for Sunday and early Monday, leading to more southerly flow and a slight rebound in temperatures. Highs on Sunday and Monday will reach into the 70s before the next frontal boundary sweeps through on Monday/Monday night. A strengthening low pressure in the Southern Plains on Sunday will race east on Monday, bringing our next cold front and chance of rain with it. The deep trough will be the beginning of a high amplitude pattern that looks to bring repeated shots of cold air to the state. While areas from the Plains into the Ohio Valley will see plentiful winter precip and those across the Southeastern U.S. will receive decent rainfall from this system, our rain chances will be confined to the isolated shower or sprinkle during the day on Monday. We will not escape the cold air though as high temperatures behind the front Tue-Thu will only make it into the 50s and lower 60s for West- central Florida. Chilly overnight lows in the 30s will reach as far south as portions of Hillsborough and Polk counties with 40s touching much of southern Florida. It might be time to bring out your cold weather gear if you haven't already! && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 147 PM EST Thu Jan 2 2025 VFR conditions for all sites through the TAF period. Light north- northeasterly winds will turn northwesterly on Friday afternoon. && .MARINE... Issued at 147 PM EST Thu Jan 2 2025 High pressure is centered north of the region today with winds and seas gradually subsiding. Winds will increase behind a cold front Friday night and Saturday, but are expected to remain below cautionary levels. Winds and seas will again subside over the weekend as high pressure builds over the waters. Sunday night and Monday, winds will once again increase ahead of another cold front and may exceed cautionary levels. High pressure will build over the waters in the wake of the cold front on Monday night, but winds may remain elevated above cautionary levels. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 147 PM EST Thu Jan 2 2025 Minimum afternoon relative humidity values may approach critical levels for the next several days. However, winds are expected to remain below 15 mph through the period so red flag conditions are not expected. Increasing moisture is expected beginning on Sunday into early next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 49 68 47 65 / 0 0 0 0 FMY 52 73 48 70 / 0 0 0 0 GIF 47 70 45 65 / 0 0 0 0 SRQ 49 70 49 68 / 0 0 0 0 BKV 38 67 38 64 / 0 0 0 0 SPG 54 66 51 65 / 0 0 0 0 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...ADavis DECISION SUPPORT/UPPER AIR...Giarratana