NWS Tampa Office Weather Forecast Discussion KTBW

Southwest and Central FL Area Forecast Discussion

The area forecast discussion is issued from the NWS Tampa office and covers 15 counties across West Central and Southwest Florida, from Levy County to Lee County and east to Polk and Highlands Counties. Forecasts are routinely issued between the hours of 3 and 4 a.m. and again between 3 and 4 p.m., and are updated at anytime when conditions warrant.

FXUS62 KTBW 270000
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
800 PM EDT Fri Jun 26 2026

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Daily maximum heat index values of 100-107 degrees continue 
  into the weekend.

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms each day mainly over the
  interior and southwest Florida.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 800 PM EDT Fri Jun 26 2026

Light south and southeast flow allowed for scattered thunderstorms
to develop this afternoon along sea breeze and outflow 
boundaries, with weak steering flow keeping storm motion slow. A 
few of these storms were able to produce strong updrafts, 
resulting in large hail cores aloft being visible on radar. With 
the loss of solar heating, these storms are quickly winding down, 
although a few cells will continue to linger though around 
midnight, with periods of rain and possible gusty winds and small 
hail possible.

A few forecast adjustments were made to the rain chances for the 
next few hours to keep up with radar trends, generally bringing 
higher rain chances back to the west as the outflow boundaries 
come back towards the coast. Otherwise, the forecast looks on 
track, and no changes are planned for the evening update.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 800 PM EDT Fri Jun 26 2026

A few storms are continuing to linger along the west coast, and
could cause brief flight category disruptions through around 02z
this evening. Mainly rain free and VFR conditions with then hold
through the overnight and morning hours. Another round of storms
will develop Saturday afternoon, with the highest storm chances
over the interior around KLAL, and across southwest Florida around
KPGD, KFMY, and KRSW.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 154 PM EDT Fri Jun 26 2026

Marine conditions remain quiet through the period. The only
exception will be isolated storms that develop over the waters.
Winds remain under 10kts and seas less than 2 ft. 

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 154 PM EDT Fri Jun 26 2026

Fire weather concerns remain minimal as RH values remain high and
winds remain below 15mph. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  79  93  79  93 /  30  40  20  40 
FMY  77  95  77  95 /  30  50  40  60 
GIF  76  95  76  95 /  20  60  30  40 
SRQ  78  94  78  94 /  30  40  20  50 
BKV  73  95  73  96 /  20  30  10  30 
SPG  80  94  80  94 /  30  30  20  40 

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Saturday: 1
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Sunday: 1

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: 
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...Fleming
MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Pearce