000 WTNT33 KNHC 221811 CCA TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Bret Intermediate Advisory Number 13A...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032023 200 PM AST Thu Jun 22 2023 Corrected statement in the Watches and Warnings Section ...BRET VERY NEAR BARBADOS... ...HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.4N 58.9W ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM ENE OF BARBADOS ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM ESE OF ST. LUCIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Barbados has upgraded the Tropical Storm Watch to a Tropical Storm Warning for Barbados and St. Vincent and the Grenadines. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * St. Lucia A Tropical Storm Warning in in effect for... * Dominica * St. Lucia * Martinique * Barbados * St. Vincent and the Grenadines A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 hours. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24 hours. Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the progress of Bret. Additional watches or warnings may be required later today. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Bret was located near latitude 13.4 North, longitude 58.9 West. Bret is moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h) and this general motion with an increase in forward speed is expected during the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of Bret is expected to move across the Lesser Antilles this evening and tonight, and then move westward across the eastern and central Caribbean Sea Friday and Saturday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is anticipated over the next couple of days, and the system is likely to dissipate over the central Caribbean Sea by Saturday night or early Sunday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Bret can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area this evening or tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm warning areas through tonight. RAINFALL: Storm total rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches with maximum amounts of 10 inches are possible across portions of the Lesser Antilles from Guadeloupe south to St Vincent and the Grenadines, including Barbados. The heavy rainfall could lead to flash flooding, especially across areas of higher terrain. Urban flooding is also possible. SURF: Swells generated by Bret are expected to affect portions of the Lesser Antilles through Friday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi