000 WTPZ41 KNHC 290832 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Orlene Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162022 400 AM CDT Thu Sep 29 2022 The depression has strengthened into Tropical Storm Orlene. A mass of deep convection with cloud tops as cold as -80 degrees C has persisted over the center of the cyclone for the past several hours. In addition, a pair of recent ASCAT overpasses showed non-rain-flagged wind vectors of 31 kt and some believable vectors of 36 kt. Based on this, the initial advisory intensity has been set at 35 kt. The cyclone is moving west-northwestward at 11 kt to the south of a mid-level ridge centered over Mexico. This motion is expected to continue for the next day or so. After that time, the track forecast becomes highly uncertain due to diverging track solutions. The UKMET and ECMWF indicate a cyclone that does not strengthen any further, and turns it westward in a couple of days in the low-level flow. The remaining model solutions indicate a stronger cyclone, and turn Orlene northward over the weekend as the system rounds the western periphery of the ridge. This scenario would bring the cyclone near the coast of Mexico or the southern Baja California peninsula early next week. The NHC track forecast favors the latter solution due to the favorable environmental conditions ahead of Orlene, and is in agreement with the TVCE consensus. Orlene is forecast to be within an environment of low vertical wind shear and plenty of atmospheric moisture while over warm waters for the next few days. The majority of guidance, except the aforementioned ECMWF and UKMET indicate steady strengthening during this time, and bring Orlene to hurricane intensity by 36 h. After 72 h the cyclone is expected to encounter drier air and strong southwesterly shear, which should induce a weakening trend. The latest NHC intensity forecast is little changed from the previous one and is close to the multi-model consensus IVCN through 48 h and is a little below it thereafter. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0900Z 14.8N 104.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 29/1800Z 15.5N 106.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 30/0600Z 16.4N 107.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 30/1800Z 17.2N 108.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 01/0600Z 17.9N 108.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 60H 01/1800Z 18.9N 108.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 02/0600Z 20.0N 108.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 03/0600Z 22.6N 107.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 04/0600Z 25.3N 107.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND $$ Forecaster Latto