000 WTPZ41 KNHC 021447 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Javier Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112022 900 AM MDT Fri Sep 02 2022 While quite broad, Javier continues to improve in organization. Deep convection has been forming near the center of the circulation with cold cloud tops below -80 degrees C. The initial intensity is raised to 40 kt to represent a blend of the Dvorak satellite classifications from TAFB and SAB. The storm is expected to be over warm waters (greater than 26 degrees C) for another 24 hours. Global models also indicate atmospheric conditions should be conducive for additional strengthening, with weak vertical wind shear and ample environmental moisture. But due to Javier's elongated structure, the official forecast calls for the system to only slightly intensify in the next day. Thereafter, the cyclone is expected to weaken as it moves over cooler waters and enters a drier, more stable environment. Javier is predicted to become a post-tropical cyclone in about 48 hours. The initial motion is estimated to be northwestward at 8 kt. The storm is moving along the periphery of a mid-level ridge to its north. In the next couple of days, the ridge is expected to build westward and turn Javier toward the west-northwest and west. The official forecast is again adjusted to the right of the previous forecast towards the multi-model consensus aids. However, tropical-storm-force winds generated by the storm are predicted to remain offshore of the western coast of Baja California Sur. Associated outer rainbands and large swells are expected to affect portions of the southern and central Baja California peninsula coast during the next couple of days. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Although the center is expected to stay offshore, heavy rainfall from Tropical Storm Javier could lead to localized flash flooding in Baja California Sur. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/1500Z 20.7N 112.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 03/0000Z 22.0N 113.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 03/1200Z 23.8N 114.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 04/0000Z 25.3N 117.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 04/1200Z 26.1N 119.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 60H 05/0000Z 26.4N 122.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 05/1200Z 26.3N 125.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 06/1200Z 25.7N 129.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 07/1200Z 25.2N 132.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Bucci/Reinhart