000 WTPZ41 KNHC 170832 TCDEP1 Hurricane Estelle Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062022 400 AM CDT Sun Jul 17 2022 After strengthening during the late afternoon and evening hours, Estelle's intensity appears to have leveled off some overnight. The system is maintaining a central dense overcast feature and outer curved bands. The Dvorak classifications from TAFB, SAB, and CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin range from 65 to 77 kt, and the initial intensity is held at 70 kt based on that data. Estelle is moving west-northwestward at 8 kt on the south side of a mid-level ridge that is centered over the southwestern U.S. A slightly faster motion to the west-northwest is expected during the next several days as the ridge builds westward over the eastern Pacific. The models are in good agreement, and the new forecast is only a little faster than the previous one. The hurricane is expected to remain in favorable conditions for another day or so, therefore, steady to possibly rapid intensification is possible during that time period. However, an increase in northeasterly shear should cause the strengthening trend to end in 36 to 48 hours, followed by weakening when Estelle moves over progressively cooler waters and into a drier airmass. The NHC intensity forecast is largely an update of the previous one and remains at the high end of the model guidance, closest to the SHIPS model. The main impact from Estelle is expected to be rough surf and the potential for rip currents along the coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico as well as the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula during the next day or two. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/0900Z 15.1N 105.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 17/1800Z 15.7N 107.4W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 18/0600Z 16.4N 109.5W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 18/1800Z 17.0N 111.8W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 19/0600Z 17.4N 114.1W 100 KT 115 MPH 60H 19/1800Z 18.1N 116.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 20/0600Z 19.0N 118.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 21/0600Z 21.1N 123.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 22/0600Z 22.5N 127.1W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi