745 WTPZ44 KNHC 042057 TCDEP4 Hurricane Bonnie Discussion Number 29 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042022 400 PM CDT Mon Jul 04 2022 Bonnie continues to strengthen and it has a become a fairly well organized hurricane. Visible satellite images show a distinct eye and inner core, and outer bands continue to become better established. The latest subjective Dvorak estimates are 4.5/77 kt and 5.0/90 kt from SAB and TAFB, respectively, and the initial intensity is nudged up to 85 kt based on that data. Bonnie has been on a steady strengthening trend since it emerged over the eastern Pacific a couple of days ago, and it could strengthen some more through tonight. Although none of the intensity models show Bonnie reaching major hurricane status, it seems like a possibility given recent trends. However, by early Tuesday, the models suggest that the intensification trend will likely plateau as northeasterly shear is expected to increase to the 15-20 kt range. The shear is expected to let up beginning Wednesday, but Bonnie will be tracking over progressively cooler waters, especially late in the period. The net result seems to suggest little change in strength from 12-72 hours, followed by steady weakening once Bonnie moves over sub 26C waters and into a drier air mass in about 4 days. This forecast lies at the high end of the guidance in the short term, but is near the consensus aids beyond 48 hours. The hurricane is moving westward at 15 kt on the south-southwest side of a deep-layer ridge. Since the subtropical ridge is expected to build westward, this should keep Bonnie on a west to west-northwest path during the next several days. There is some speed, or along-track, differences in the models, but they all show a similar theme. The NHC track forecast is largely an update of the previous one and near the various consensus models. Although the core of Bonnie is expected to remain well south of Mexico, rough surf and the potential for rip currents will continue to affect southwestern Mexico for another day or two. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/2100Z 13.9N 100.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 05/0600Z 14.4N 102.4W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 05/1800Z 15.1N 104.9W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 06/0600Z 15.6N 107.2W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 06/1800Z 15.8N 109.4W 90 KT 105 MPH 60H 07/0600Z 16.1N 111.4W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 07/1800Z 16.5N 113.7W 90 KT 105 MPH 96H 08/1800Z 17.8N 119.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 120H 09/1800Z 19.3N 125.3W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi