000 WTPZ43 KNHC 271541 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Celia Discussion Number 44 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032022 800 AM PDT Mon Jun 27 2022 This morning's satellite presentation consists of a single curved band of deep convection in the south semi-circle of the cyclone. Over the past several hours, this banding feature has decreased in areal extent, and the cloud tops have warmed. A 0945 UTC AMSR2 microwave image revealed a vertically tilted structure with the surface circulation displaced to the southeast of the mid-level feature. The Dvorak satellite intensity estimate T numbers and a recent SATCON member consensus have decreased. Therefore, the initial intensity is lowered to 40 kt for this advisory. Celia should continue to spin down slowly during the next few days while traversing decreasing sea surface temperatures. Inhibiting thermodynamic environmental conditions are also expected to contribute to its eventual dissipation toward the end of the week. The NHC forecast is similar to last night's advisory and closely resembles a blend of the IVCN and HCCA model intensity predictions. Celia's initial motion is estimated to be west-northwestward, or 295/9 kt, and the system is embedded in the mid-level steering flow generated by a subtropical ridge to the north of the cyclone. Little change in motion and forward speed is expected until dissipation. The official track forecast is not much different from the previous one and lies in the middle of the model guidance suite. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/1500Z 20.8N 116.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 28/0000Z 21.4N 118.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 28/1200Z 22.2N 120.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 29/0000Z 22.9N 122.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 29/1200Z 23.6N 124.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 30/0000Z 24.1N 126.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 30/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roberts