000 WTPZ43 KNHC 261434 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Celia Discussion Number 40 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032022 900 AM MDT Sun Jun 26 2022 This morning's satellite presentation shows very little change in Celia's cloud pattern. However, the cloud tops associated with the deep convection are beginning to warm. The latest AMSR2 microwave revealed a symmetric cyclone with an eye-like feature in the low-frequency band. Therefore, the initial intensity is conservatively held at 45 kt and is supported by a blend of the subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates. Celia should gradually weaken while it moves into a stable and dry surrounding atmosphere, and over cooler oceanic surface temperatures. Accordingly, Celia is expected to degenerate into a post-tropical cyclone on Monday and dissipate toward the end of the week, and this scenario is in agreement with the latest statistical and dynamical intensity guidance. Celia's initial motion is estimated to be west-northwestward, or 285/6 kt, just a little bit to the left of the previous advisory motion. The forecast track philosophy remains the same. A mid-tropospheric ridge anchored over the eastern North Pacific should steer the cyclone on a continued west-northwestward course through the forecast period. The official NHC forecast is based on the various tightly clustered consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/1500Z 19.1N 113.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 27/0000Z 19.5N 114.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 27/1200Z 20.3N 116.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 28/0000Z 21.1N 118.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 48H 28/1200Z 21.9N 120.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 29/0000Z 22.6N 123.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 29/1200Z 23.2N 125.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 30/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roberts