000 WTPZ43 KNHC 232034 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Celia Discussion Number 29 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032022 300 PM MDT Thu Jun 23 2022 Celia finally looks like a non-sheared tropical storm. The low-level center is now embedded beneath a burst of convection that began earlier this morning, and convective banding is becoming more pronounced. There's quite a large range of intensity estimates-- from 30 to 45 kt--but given the improved structure, the initial intensity remains 45 kt at the top of that range. With its improved structure, Celia should be able to take advantage of low deep-layer shear and waters warmer than 26 degrees Celsius for strengthening over the next couple of days. The NHC intensity forecast still shows Celia becoming a hurricane and most closely follows SHIPS, COAMPS-TC, and HCCA at the higher end of the guidance. Gradual weakening is anticipated after 48 hours as the cyclone moves over cooler waters, and Celia is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low by day 5. Celia has turned back to the west-northwest (300 degrees) at a slightly slower speed of 10 kt. Mid-tropospheric ridging across the southern United States and northern Mexico is expected to expand westward over the next few days, keeping Celia on a west-northwestward course until lower-level winds turn the remnant low to the west by day 5. The steering currents do weaken a bit, however, and Celia could be moving around 5 kt in about 36 hours. The track guidance has slowed down during the middle to latter part of the forecast, and the updated NHC forecast is therefore also a little slower than the morning forecast. There is no change to Celia's predicted trajectory, however. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/2100Z 16.4N 106.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 24/0600Z 16.8N 108.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 24/1800Z 17.1N 109.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 25/0600Z 17.4N 110.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 25/1800Z 17.9N 111.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 26/0600Z 18.6N 112.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 26/1800Z 19.3N 114.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 27/1800Z 20.5N 118.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 28/1800Z 21.1N 123.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Berg