000 WTPZ43 KNHC 230836 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Celia Discussion Number 27 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032022 400 AM CDT Thu Jun 23 2022 The organization of Celia has deteriorated this morning. The low-level center is completely exposed to the north of a ragged-looking area of convection. This unexpected separation of the low-level center, apparently due to the northerly shear, implies that there has been no increase of intensity since yesterday. The initial wind speed is held at 45 kt and given the current appearance of the system, this may even be a generous intensity estimate. Celia has taken a northwestward jog over the past 6 to 12 hours. This is potentially due to the sheared vortex structure. The storm is expected to become more vertically coupled and resume a west-northwestward track beginning later today. The longer-term motion should be governed by the mid-level high pressure system and associated ridge to the north and northeast of Celia. The new NHC track forecast is shifted slightly northward on a account of the recent more northward movement of the cyclone. This is in close agreement with the model consensus. The global dynamical models forecast some decrease in the vertical wind shear, which should allow for gradual intensification of the storm. However, global models do maintain a moderate level of shear and this, along with cooler SSTs within the next day or two, could limit strengthening. The official intensity forecast is a little above most of the model guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/0900Z 15.5N 105.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 23/1800Z 16.3N 106.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 24/0600Z 16.9N 108.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 24/1800Z 17.2N 109.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 25/0600Z 17.5N 110.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 25/1800Z 18.2N 111.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 26/0600Z 19.1N 113.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 27/0600Z 20.3N 117.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 28/0600Z 21.3N 121.6W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch/Bucci