000 WTPZ43 KNHC 222041 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Celia Discussion Number 25 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032022 400 PM CDT Wed Jun 22 2022 The convective pattern associated with Celia has been improving this afternoon. Although the storm is still asymmetric, thunderstorm activity is beginning to curve around the center of circulation during the past couple of hours. A recent ASCAT-B pass captured a portion of the western side of the system, and showed reliable winds in the 35-40 kt range. Dvorak estimates range from 37 to 55 kt. Based on a combination of all of this data, the initial intensity is increased a little to 45 kt. The storm is moving to the west-northwest at 7 kt, and it is currently being steered by a strong mid-level ridge centered over the south-central U.S. This ridge is expected to remain in control during the next several days, and it should keep Celia on a general west-northwest track through the forecast period. The NHC track forecast lies near the southern edge of the guidance in the short term, partially based on extrapolation, but near the consensus models after that. The environmental conditions are expected to become more favorable for Celia during the next couple of days. The SHIPS model shows the shear decreasing to about 10 kt during that time while the storm remains over 27-28 degree C waters. These conditions should allow Celia to strengthen, and it is expected to become a hurricane in about 36 hours. By the weekend, however, Celia is expected to cross the 26 degree C isotherm and move into a drier airmass, which should end the strengthening trend and induce gradual weakening. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous one and near the HCCA and IVCN consensus models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/2100Z 13.8N 104.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 23/0600Z 14.4N 105.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 23/1800Z 15.4N 107.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 24/0600Z 16.0N 108.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 24/1800Z 16.5N 109.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 60H 25/0600Z 17.2N 110.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 25/1800Z 18.0N 111.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 26/1800Z 19.2N 115.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 27/1800Z 20.3N 119.1W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi