000 WTNT31 KNHC 030246 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone One Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012022 1000 PM CDT Thu Jun 02 2022 ...HEAVY RAINFALL TO SPREAD OVER PORTIONS OF CUBA, THE FLORIDA KEYS, AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH FLOODING POSSIBLE... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.8N 87.4W ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM NNW OF COZUMEL MEXICO ABOUT 480 MI...770 KM SW OF FT. MYERS FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for all of the Florida Keys, including the Dry Tortugas and Florida Bay, and for the west coast of Florida south of Englewood. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for: * Florida Keys including the Dry Tortugas * Florida Bay * West coast of Florida south of Englewood to Card Sound Bridge A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for.. * West coast of Florida from south of the Middle of Longboat Key to Englewood * East coast of Florida south of the Volusia/Brevard County Line to Card Sound Bridge * Lake Okeechobee * Cuban provinces of Matanzas, Mayabeque, Havana, Artemisa, Pinar del Rio, and the Isle of Youth * Northwestern Bahamas A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible somewhere within the watch area within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in the Florida Peninsula should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 21.8 North, longitude 87.4 West. The system is moving toward the north near 6 mph (9 km/h). A turn toward the northeast is expected tonight, and a faster motion toward the northeast is expected Friday and Saturday. On the forecast track, the system should move across the southeastern Gulf of Mexico through Friday night, and then move across the southern and central portions of the Florida Peninsula on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. The system is expected to become a tropical depression on Friday and a tropical storm by late Friday or Friday night. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone One can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC, and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages. RAINFALL: The Potential Tropical Cyclone is expected to produce heavy rains over the eastern portions of the Yucatan Peninsula, the Cayman Islands and western Cuba through Friday. Heavy rains will begin to affect South Florida and the Keys beginning Friday and continuing through Saturday. The following storm total rainfall amounts are currently expected: Eastern portions of the Yucatan Peninsula and the Cayman Islands: 2 to 4 inches, with isolated maxima of 6 inches. Western Cuba: 6 to 10 inches, with isolated maxima of 14 inches. This rain may cause life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. South Florida including the Keys: 4 to 8 inches with maxima of 12 inches. This rain may produce considerable flash and urban flooding. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in Florida Friday night or early Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in Cuba on Friday and are possible in the watch area in Florida and the northwestern Bahamas Friday night and Saturday. STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Marco Island, FL to Card Sound Bridge...1-3 ft Middle of Longboat Key, FL to Marco Island, FL...1-2 ft Charlotte Harbor...1-2 ft Florida Keys and Dry Tortugas...1-2 ft Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes are possible over south Florida beginning Friday evening through Saturday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Latto/Cangialosi