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Lee County Forecast
Today

Today: Scattered showers and thunderstorms after 2pm.  Mostly sunny, with a high near 90. Heat index values as high as 98. Northeast wind 5 to 7 mph.  Chance of precipitation is 40%.
Mostly Sunny
then
Scattered
T-storms
Tonight

Tonight: Scattered showers and thunderstorms before 11pm.  Mostly cloudy, with a low around 75. East northeast wind 5 to 7 mph.  Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Scattered
T-storms then
Mostly Cloudy
Hi 90 °FLo 75 °F
Extended Forecast
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000
ABNT20 KNHC 220544
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Fri Sep 22 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Post-Tropical
Cyclone Jose, located about 135 miles southeast of Nantucket,
Massachusetts, and on Hurricane Maria, located about 45 miles
east-southeast of Grand Turk Island.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Beven

Summary for Post-Tropical Cyclone Jose (AT2/AL122017)

...JOSE CONTINUES TO BRING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS TO CAPE COD AND NEARBY ISLANDS...
 As of 5:00 AM AST Fri Sep 22
 the center of Jose was located near 39.7, -68.7
 with movement W at 2 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 990 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

Post-Tropical Cyclone Jose Public Advisory Number 68

Issued at 500 AM AST Fri Sep 22 2017  

000
WTNT32 KNHC 220837
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Jose Advisory Number  68
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122017
500 AM AST Fri Sep 22 2017

...JOSE CONTINUES TO BRING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS TO CAPE COD
AND NEARBY ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...39.7N 68.7W
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM SE OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Woods Hole to Sagamore Beach, including Cape Cod
* Block Island
* Martha's Vineyard
* Nantucket

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Jose
was located near latitude 39.7 North, longitude 68.7 West.  The
post-tropical cyclone is moving slowly toward the west near 2 mph
(4 km/h).  Jose is expected to meander well off the coast of New
England for the next several days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual weakening is forecast for the next 48 hours.

Jose is a large system.  Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward
up to 220 miles (350 km) from the center.  A sustained wind of 43
mph (69 km/h) with a gust to 53 mph (85 km/h) was recently reported
at an unofficial observing site on Block Island.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue in the
warning area this morning.

SURF:  Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda and much of
the U.S. east coast and will likely cause dangerous surf and rip
current conditions during the next couple of days.  For more
information, please consult products from your local weather office.

Rainfall: Jose is expected to produce additional rainfall
accumulations of up to one inch across Cape Cod and the offshore
Islands of Martha's Vineyard and Nantucket through early Saturday.
When including rain that has already fallen, storm total
accumulations could reach 6 inches on Nantucket.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

Post-Tropical Cyclone Jose Forecast Advisory Number 68

Issued at 0900 UTC FRI SEP 22 2017  

000
WTNT22 KNHC 220837
TCMAT2

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE JOSE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  68
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122017
0900 UTC FRI SEP 22 2017

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WOODS HOLE TO SAGAMORE BEACH... INCLUDING CAPE COD
* BLOCK ISLAND
* MARTHA'S VINEYARD
* NANTUCKET

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.7N  68.7W AT 22/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT   2 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  990 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT.......190NE 130SE 160SW 190NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 240SE 210SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.7N  68.7W AT 22/0900Z
AT 22/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 39.7N  68.6W

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 39.7N  69.0W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE 120SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 39.5N  69.0W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...  0NE   0SE  60SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 39.2N  68.5W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...  0NE   0SE  60SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 38.9N  67.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 38.5N  67.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 39.7N  68.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY


Post-Tropical Cyclone Jose Forecast Discussion Number 68

Issued at 500 AM AST Fri Sep 22 2017  

000
WTNT42 KNHC 220839
TCDAT2

Post-Tropical Cyclone Jose Discussion Number  68
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122017
500 AM AST Fri Sep 22 2017

Since the last advisory, a small burst of deep convection has been
observed near the center of Jose.  The cyclone is still embedded
within a dry environment and located over cold SSTs, so it will be a
little surprising if the convection is maintained for an extended
period of time this morning.  The intensity of the post-tropical
cyclone remains 45 kt, based on earlier ASCAT data, and these winds
are likely occuring over open water well to the northwest of Jose's
center.  Surface observations on Martha's Vineyard, Nantucket, and
Block Island indicate that tropical storm conditions are still
occuring in some locations along the coast.  The prior ASCAT pass
also showed a wide area of tropical-storm-force winds just offshore
of Cape Cod, and there is still some opportunity for these winds to
reach the coast this morning.  Therefore, the tropical storm
warnings remain in effect, and the NHC will continue to issue
advisories on Jose.

No significant change has been made to the track or intensity
forecast.  All of the dynamical models remain in good agreement that
Jose will remain trapped in weak steering flow while gradually
spinning down for the next several days.  Although the cyclone has
been drifting west for the past 12 hours, a slow turn back toward
the east should begin sometime later today and continue through at
least day 3.  The NHC forecast track is close to the TVCX and HCCA
consensus aids.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Tropical-storm-force winds, especially in gusts, are occuring
within the tropical storm warning area.  These conditions are
expected to continue this morning.

2. Minor coastal flooding is possible along portions of the coast of
southern New England during the next few days.  Please see products
issued by local National Weather Service forecast offices.

3. Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda and much of the
U.S. east coast, and will likely cause dangerous surf and rip
current conditions for the next couple of days in these areas.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  22/0900Z 39.7N  68.7W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 12H  22/1800Z 39.7N  69.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 24H  23/0600Z 39.5N  69.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 36H  23/1800Z 39.2N  68.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 48H  24/0600Z 38.9N  67.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  25/0600Z 38.5N  67.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  26/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

Post-Tropical Cyclone Jose Wind Speed Probabilities Number 68

Issued at 0900 UTC FRI SEP 22 2017


000
FONT12 KNHC 220838
PWSAT2
                                                                    
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE JOSE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  68      
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122017               
0900 UTC FRI SEP 22 2017                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE JOSE WAS LOCATED NEAR  
LATITUDE 39.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
YARMOUTH NS    34  1   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
BAR HARBOR ME  34  1   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
AUGUSTA ME     34  1   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
PORTLAND ME    34  2   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
CONCORD NH     34  3   2( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
PORTSMOUTH NH  34  3   3( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
WORCESTER MA   34  4   3( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
SPRINGFIELD MA 34  3   3( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
BOSTON MA      34  5   3( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
HYANNIS MA     34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
NANTUCKET MA   34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
PROVIDENCE RI  34 10   4(14)   1(15)   1(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)
 
BRIDGEPORT CT  34  3   3( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
NEW HAVEN CT   34  4   3( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
HARTFORD CT    34  4   3( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
NEW LONDON CT  34  7   4(11)   2(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)
 
ALBANY NY      34  1   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
POUGHKEEPSIE   34  2   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
MONTAUK POINT  34 10   5(15)   2(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)
 
ISLIP NY       34  4   3( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
NYC JFK AIRPRT 34  3   2( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
NYC CNTRL PARK 34  2   3( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
NEWARK NJ      34  2   2( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
TRENTON NJ     34  1   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
NWS EARLE NJ   34  2   3( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
PHILADELPHIA   34  X   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
ATLANTIC CITY  34  1   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
CAPE HENLOPEN  34  X   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER ZELINSKY                                                 

Post-Tropical Cyclone Jose Graphics


Post-Tropical Cyclone Jose 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 22 Sep 2017 08:44:03 GMT

Post-Tropical Cyclone Jose 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 22 Sep 2017 09:24:35 GMT

Local Statement for Boston, MA

Issued at  516 AM EDT Fri Sep 22 2017

Summary for Hurricane Maria (AT5/AL152017)

...EYE OF MARIA NOW NEAR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS... ...TORRENTIAL RAINS AND DANGEROUS HIGH WAVES STARTING TO SUBSIDE ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF HISPANIOLA...
 As of 5:00 AM EDT Fri Sep 22
 the center of Maria was located near 21.6, -70.6
 with movement NW at 7 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 959 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 125 mph.

Hurricane Maria Public Advisory Number 25

Issued at 500 AM EDT Fri Sep 22 2017  

000
WTNT35 KNHC 220843
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Maria Advisory Number  25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152017
500 AM EDT Fri Sep 22 2017

...EYE OF MARIA NOW NEAR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...
...TORRENTIAL RAINS AND DANGEROUS HIGH WAVES STARTING TO SUBSIDE
ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF HISPANIOLA...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.6N 70.6W
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM ENE OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
ABOUT 490 MI...790 KM ESE OF NASSAU
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...959 MB...28.32 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to Puerto Plata
* Turks and Caicos Islands and the Southeastern Bahamas

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Dominican Republic west of Puerto Plata to the northern border of
the Dominican Republic and Haiti

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Central Bahamas

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Bahamas should monitor the progress of
Maria.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Maria was located
near latitude 21.6 North, longitude 70.6 West. Maria is moving
toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h), and a motion toward the
north-northwest is expected later today and Saturday.  On the
forecast track, Maria's eye will move near or just east of the Turks
and Caicos Islands and southeastern Bahamas today.

Maximum sustained winds are near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Maria is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale.  A gradual weakening is forecast during the
next 48 hours.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160
miles (260 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 959 mb (28.32 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions across portions of the Dominican
Republic should subside during the next several hours.  Hurricane
conditions are spreading into the Turks and Caicos Islands and the
southeastern Bahamas and will continue through today.  Tropical
storm conditions are possible in the central Bahamas beginning late
today.

STORM SURGE:  A dangerous storm surge accompanied by large and
destructive waves will raise water levels by as much as 4 to 6 feet
above normal tide levels in the hurricane warning area in the
Dominican Republic, and 1 to 3 ft elsewhere along the northern
coasts of the Dominican Republic and Haiti.

A dangerous storm surge accompanied by large and destructive waves
will raise water levels by as much as 9 to 12 feet above normal
tide levels within the hurricane warning area of the southeastern
Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands.

RAINFALL: Maria is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations through Saturday:

Turks and Caicos...8 to 16 inches, isolated 20 inches
Puerto Rico...additional 3 to 6 inches, isolated maximum storm
total amounts 40 inches
Eastern Dominican Republic...additional 4 to 8 inches, isolated
storm total amounts 20 inches
Western Dominican Republic and northern Haiti...additional 3 to 6
inches
Mayaguana, southeast Bahamas...4 to 8 inches
Inagua Islands and Crooked Island, Bahamas...2 to 6 inches
Rest of eastern Bahamas...1 to 3 inches

Rainfall on these islands will continue to cause life-threatening
flash floods and mudslides.

SURF:  Swells generated by Maria are affecting Puerto Rico, the
Virgin Islands, the northern coast of Hispaniola, the Turks and
Caicos Islands, and the southeastern Bahamas.  These swells will
reach the remainder of the Bahamas soon and should reach portions
of the United States southeastern coast today.  These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

Hurricane Maria Forecast Advisory Number 25

Issued at 0900 UTC FRI SEP 22 2017  

000
WTNT25 KNHC 220842
TCMAT5

HURRICANE MARIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152017
0900 UTC FRI SEP 22 2017

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO TO PUERTO PLATA
* TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WEST OF PUERTO PLATA TO THE NORTHERN BORDER OF
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CENTRAL BAHAMAS

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
MARIA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.6N  70.6W AT 22/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT   6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  959 MB
EYE DIAMETER  35 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT.
64 KT....... 60NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
50 KT....... 90NE  80SE  60SW  80NW.
34 KT.......140NE 120SE 100SW 130NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 180SE 120SW 360NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.6N  70.6W AT 22/0900Z
AT 22/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.2N  70.4W

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 22.6N  71.1W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
50 KT... 90NE  80SE  60SW  80NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 100SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 24.2N  71.7W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 55NE  45SE  40SW  45NW.
50 KT...100NE  80SE  60SW  80NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 110SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 25.9N  72.2W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 55NE  45SE  40SW  45NW.
50 KT...100NE  80SE  60SW  80NW.
34 KT...160NE 160SE 110SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 27.4N  72.3W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT...100NE  90SE  70SW  80NW.
34 KT...170NE 170SE 130SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 29.5N  72.0W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT...100NE  90SE  70SW  80NW.
34 KT...170NE 170SE 140SW 150NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z 31.5N  71.0W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 27/0600Z 33.5N  70.5W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.6N  70.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN


Hurricane Maria Forecast Discussion Number 25

Issued at 500 AM EDT Fri Sep 22 2017  

000
WTNT45 KNHC 220844
TCDAT5

Hurricane Maria Discussion Number  25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152017
500 AM EDT Fri Sep 22 2017

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft near
0500 UTC indicated that the central pressure of Maria had risen to
959 mb, accompanied by flight-level winds and SFMR surface wind
estimates that supported an intensity near 110 kt.  Since that time,
the cloud tops in the eyewall have cooled, but the eye has become
less distinct in conventional satellite imagery.  The initial
intensity is held at 110 kt pending the arrival of the next plane
near 1200 UTC, but it is possible this is a little generous.  Maria
is starting to be affected by 15-20 kt of southwesterly vertical
wind shear, with the first sign of this being a decrease in
convective banding in the western semicircle.

The large-scale models forecast some shear to persist through the
forecast period, and as a result the intensity guidance predicts a
gradual weakening.  In addition, after 48 h the forecast track takes
the center of Maria over waters that were cooled significantly by
the passage of former Hurricane Jose.  Based on these factors, the
new intensity forecast calls for a slow weakening during the first
48 h similar to the previous forecast, then calls for more weakening
than previously forecast as the cyclone reaches the colder waters.

The initial motion is 315/6.  Maria will be moving between the
subtropical ridge to the east and a broad trough over the
southeastern United States and the adjacent Atlantic waters during
the next several days.  This pattern should cause the hurricane to
turn north-northwestward and then northward during the next 72 h.
The track guidance is tightly clustered during this part of the
forecast, and the new forecast track is an update of the previous
track.  After 72 h, the guidance becomes a little more divergent.
The Canadian and ECMWF models are on the left side of the envelope
showing a generally northward motion, while the GFS is on the right
side showing a north-northeastward motion.  This part of the
forecast track is nudged just a little to the left of the old
forecast and the consensus models to account for the ECMWF/Canadian
forecasts.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Flash flood warnings continue in portions of Puerto Rico due
to persistent heavy rainfall from Maria's trailing rainbands.
Everyone in Puerto Rico should continue to follow advice from local
officials to avoid these life-threatening flooding conditions.

2. Swells from Maria are expected to begin reaching the coast of
the southeastern United States today.  These swells are likely to
cause dangerous surf and life-threatening rip currents along the
coast for the next several days, even with Maria forecast to remain
well offshore over the western Atlantic Ocean.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  22/0900Z 21.6N  70.6W  110 KT 125 MPH
 12H  22/1800Z 22.6N  71.1W  105 KT 120 MPH
 24H  23/0600Z 24.2N  71.7W  105 KT 120 MPH
 36H  23/1800Z 25.9N  72.2W  100 KT 115 MPH
 48H  24/0600Z 27.4N  72.3W   95 KT 110 MPH
 72H  25/0600Z 29.5N  72.0W   85 KT 100 MPH
 96H  26/0600Z 31.5N  71.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
120H  27/0600Z 33.5N  70.5W   65 KT  75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven

Hurricane Maria Wind Speed Probabilities Number 25

Issued at 0900 UTC FRI SEP 22 2017


000
FONT15 KNHC 220843
PWSAT5
                                                                    
HURRICANE MARIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  25                 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152017               
0900 UTC FRI SEP 22 2017                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MARIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE    
21.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 70.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR  
110 KTS...125 MPH...205 KM/H.                                       
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
HYANNIS MA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
NANTUCKET MA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
ATLANTIC CITY  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
DOVER DE       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
CAPE HENLOPEN  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)
 
OCEAN CITY MD  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)
 
WALLOPS CDA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)
 
NORFOLK NAS    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
 
NORFOLK VA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
 
OCEANA NAS VA  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)
 
ELIZABETH CTY  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)
 
CAPE HATTERAS  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   5(10)
 
CHERRY PT NC   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   3( 6)
 
NEW RIVER NC   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   4( 8)
 
MOREHEAD CITY  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   4( 7)
 
SURF CITY NC   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)
 
WILMINGTON NC  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
BALD HEAD ISL  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)
 
BERMUDA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   6(13)
 
NEW PROVIDENCE 34  X   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   2( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
ANDROS         34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
GREAT EXUMA    34  2   4( 6)   3( 9)   2(11)   1(12)   X(12)   X(12)
 
SAN SALVADOR   34  3  12(15)   8(23)   4(27)   3(30)   X(30)   X(30)
SAN SALVADOR   50  X   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
MAYAGUANA      34 42  11(53)   2(55)   1(56)   X(56)   X(56)   X(56)
MAYAGUANA      50  3   3( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
MAYAGUANA      64  1   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
GRAND TURK     34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
GRAND TURK     50 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
GRAND TURK     64 75   X(75)   X(75)   X(75)   X(75)   X(75)   X(75)
 
GUANTANAMO BAY 34  2   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   1( 4)
 
PORT-AU-PRINCE 34  2   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
PUERTO PLATA   34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
SANTO DOMINGO  34  3   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BEVEN                                                    

Hurricane Maria Graphics


Hurricane Maria 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 22 Sep 2017 08:50:14 GMT

Hurricane Maria 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 22 Sep 2017 09:32:43 GMT
  
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