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Tropical Storm Nicole Forecast Discussion


814 
WTNT42 KNHC 101452
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Nicole Discussion Number  14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL172022
1000 AM EST Thu Nov 10 2022

The center of Nicole is currently over west central Florida to the
northeast of Tampa. While the cyclone remains well organized in
satellite imagery, surface observation and Doppler radar data
indicate that the maximum winds have decreased to near 45 kt, and
that the central pressure has risen to near 985 mb.

The initial motion is 295/14 kt.  A low- to mid-level ridge to the 
northeast of Nicole is moving eastward as a deep-layer mid-latitude 
trough and associated surface cold front are approaching from the 
west.  This evolution should cause Nicole to turn northwestward 
today, with the center moving just offshore of the coast of the 
Florida Big Bend.  The storm should turn northward tonight and move 
over the southeastern United States.  On Friday, Nicole or its 
remnants should accelerate north-northeastward on the east side of 
the trough.  The new forecast track is similar to, but just a little 
west of the previous track, and it lies close to the various 
consensus models.

Continued weakening is expected this morning while the center 
remains over land.  While the center is forecast to briefly emerge 
over the Gulf of Mexico this afternoon, it is not expected to be 
over water long enough for significant re-intensification.  After 
landfall in the Florida Panhandle, Nicole should weaken to a 
depression by 24 h.  Subsequently, the cyclone will become 
post-tropical and be absorbed by the large mid-latitude weather 
system.


Key Messages:

1. Tropical storm conditions will continue along the east coast of
Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina within the warning areas today.
Tropical storm conditions will spread northward along the west
coast of Florida to the coast of the Florida Panhandle through
tonight.

2. A dangerous storm surge is expected along portions of the
east-central and northeastern coast of Florida, portions of coastal
Georgia, and the Florida Big Bend along the Gulf coast.  The storm
surge will be accompanied by large and damaging waves along the
Atlantic coast.  Residents in the warning area should listen to
advice given by local officials.

3. Do not focus on the exact track of Nicole since it is a large
storm with hazards extending well to the north of the center,
outside of the forecast cone.  These hazards will continue to
affect much of the Florida peninsula and portions of the southeast
United States.

4. Nicole will produce heavy rainfall today across the Florida
Peninsula. Flash and urban flooding will be possible across portions
of the Florida Peninsula along with renewed river flooding on the
St. Johns River. Isolated flash, urban, and small stream flooding
will also be possible on Friday in the Southeast through the central
Appalachians, including the Blue Ridge Mountains, and extending
northward through eastern Ohio, west central Pennsylvania, into
western New York by Friday night into Saturday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  10/1500Z 28.2N  82.2W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND
 12H  11/0000Z 29.9N  83.9W   40 KT  45 MPH...OVER WATER
 24H  11/1200Z 32.9N  83.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 36H  12/0000Z 37.3N  80.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 48H  12/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven




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