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Tropical Storm Nicole Forecast Discussion


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WTNT42 KNHC 100857
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Nicole Discussion Number  13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL172022
400 AM EST Thu Nov 10 2022

Nicole's center made landfall around 3 AM EST (0800 UTC) in the
vicinity of Vero Beach, Florida.  Now that the center is inland over
Florida, it is assumed that weakening has begun, and Nicole is being
designated as a tropical storm with maximum winds of 60 kt.

The initial motion is west-northwestward, or 295/12 kt.  Mid-level
high pressure is sliding eastward off the North Carolina/Virginia
coast, with a large deep-layer trough moving eastward from the
Rocky Mountains.  This pattern is expected to cause Nicole to turn
northwestward later today and then accelerate toward the
north-northeast over the southeastern U.S. on Friday.  There has
been no appreciable change in the track guidance on this cycle, and
the new NHC track forecast essentially lies on top of the previous
prediction.

Weakening is expected to continue while Nicole's center moves
across central Florida during the morning hours.  Although the
center may emerge over the extreme northeastern Gulf of Mexico
early this afternoon, it won't be over water long enough to aid in
any re-intensification.  Continued weakening is forecast tonight
and on Friday while Nicole moves across the southeastern United
States.  The NHC intensity forecast follows a blend of the
solutions from Decay-SHIPS, HCCA, and the Florida State
Superensemble.  Nicole is forecast to merge with another
extratropical system over the Mid-Atlantic states by 48 hours.


Key Messages:

1. Tropical storm conditions will continue along the east coast of
Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina within the warning areas today.
Tropical storm conditions will spread northward along the west
coast of Florida to the coast of the Florida Panhandle through
tonight.

2. A dangerous storm surge is expected along portions of the
east-central and northeastern coast of Florida, portions of coastal
Georgia, and the Florida Big Bend along the Gulf coast.  The storm
surge will be accompanied by large and damaging waves along the
Atlantic coast.  Residents in the warning area should listen to
advice given by local officials.

3. Do not focus on the exact track of Nicole since it is a large
storm with hazards extending well to the north of the center,
outside of the forecast cone.  These hazards will continue to
affect much of the Florida peninsula and portions of the southeast
United States.

4. Nicole will produce heavy rainfall today across the Florida
Peninsula.  Flash and urban flooding will be possible across
portions of the Florida Peninsula along with renewed river flooding
on the St. Johns River.  Isolated flash, urban, and small stream
flooding will also be possible on Friday in the Southeast through
the central Appalachians, including the Blue Ridge Mountains, and
extending northward through eastern Ohio, west central Pennsylvania,
into western New York by Friday night into Saturday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  10/0900Z 27.8N  80.7W   60 KT  70 MPH...INLAND
 12H  10/1800Z 28.9N  82.8W   45 KT  50 MPH...OVER GULF OF MEXICO
 24H  11/0600Z 31.2N  84.1W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 36H  11/1800Z 34.7N  82.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 48H  12/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg



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