Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Storm Martin Forecast Discussion


000
WTNT41 KNHC 020243
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Martin Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL162022
1100 PM AST Tue Nov 01 2022

Deep convection is gradually increasing near the center of Martin 
and banding features are becoming better established on the system's 
north side. Even though the core of Martin looks tropical in nature, 
the storm still has some subtropical characteristics with frontal 
features nearby. The latest Dvorak estimates were unchanged from 
earlier, so the initial wind speed remains 50 kt for this advisory.

Martin is moving just south of due east, with the latest initial 
motion estimated to be 100/9 kt. The storm should begin to turn 
northeastward on Wednesday as a mid- to upper-level trough currently 
off the northeast U.S. approaches the system. A stronger mid- to 
upper-level trough near Atlantic Canada should help accelerate 
Martin northeastward by Wednesday night and Thursday before this 
trough interacts and merges with the storm Thursday night and 
Friday. After the two systems merge, Martin will likely slow down 
and move eastward over the northeastern Atlantic. Little change was 
made to the previous track forecast during the first 72 hours, but 
notable eastward adjustments were made at days 4 and 5 to be in 
better agreement with the latest model guidance.

Although Martin is over relatively cool 25 degree C waters and 
headed over even cooler SSTs during the next couple of days, 
unstable conditions and upper-level diffluence along with 
non-tropical forcing should cause significant strengthening during 
the next day or two. Martin is forecast to become a powerful 
extratropical low in about 36 hours when it merges with the strong 
trough off Atlantic Canada. After that time, the models show a slow 
weakening trend. The NHC intensity forecast is in line with the 
majority of the guidance and is fairly similar to the previous 
forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  02/0300Z 35.1N  53.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  02/1200Z 35.9N  51.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  03/0000Z 38.8N  46.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  03/1200Z 44.0N  40.3W   80 KT  90 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  04/0000Z 51.4N  35.2W   75 KT  85 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 60H  04/1200Z 57.4N  33.2W   70 KT  80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  05/0000Z 57.3N  34.9W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  06/0000Z 54.7N  27.6W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  07/0000Z 55.0N  19.9W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi



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