Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Storm Lisa Wind Speed Probabilities


000
FONT15 KNHC 020248
PWSAT5

TROPICAL STORM LISA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  10             
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152022               
0300 UTC WED NOV 02 2022                                            

AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LISA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
16.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR  
60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H.                                         

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 


  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   

TUXPAN MX      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)

VERACRUZ MX    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   8( 9)   2(11)   2(13)

FRONTERA MX    34  X   2( 2)   5( 7)  13(20)  15(35)   X(35)   1(36)
FRONTERA MX    50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   6( 9)   1(10)   X(10)
FRONTERA MX    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)

MERIDA MX      34  X   3( 3)   2( 5)   1( 6)   2( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)

COZUMEL MX     34  2   3( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)

BELIZE CITY    34  6  87(93)   1(94)   1(95)   X(95)   X(95)   X(95)
BELIZE CITY    50  1  63(64)   4(68)   X(68)   X(68)   X(68)   X(68)
BELIZE CITY    64  X  38(38)   3(41)   X(41)   X(41)   X(41)   X(41)

PUERTO BARRIOS 34  1   6( 7)   4(11)   X(11)   1(12)   X(12)   X(12)

GUANAJA        34 89   1(90)   X(90)   X(90)   X(90)   X(90)   X(90)
GUANAJA        50 12   1(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)
GUANAJA        64  5   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)

S SALVADOR     34  1   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

TEGUCIGALPA    34  1   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

P SAN JOSE     34  X   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

GUATEMALA CITY 34  X   2( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   1( 5)

TAPACHULA      34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   1( 5)

$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BUCCI/CANGIALOSI                                         



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