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Tropical Storm Lisa Forecast Advisory


000
WTNT25 KNHC 010254
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM LISA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152022
0300 UTC TUE NOV 01 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF HONDURAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM
THE BORDER WITH NICARAGUA TO PUNTA CASTILLA.

THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH
FOR JAMAICA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BAY ISLANDS
* BELIZE COAST FROM NORTH OF PUERTO BARRIOS TO SOUTH OF CHETUMAL

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BAY ISLANDS
* HONDURAS FROM THE BORDER WITH NICARAGUA TO PUNTA CASTILLA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ENTIRE NORTH COAST OF HONDURAS
* GUATEMALA FROM BORDER WITH HONDURAS TO PUERTO BARRIOS
* MEXICO FROM CHETUMAL TO PUNTA HERRERO.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.  A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF
MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF LISA.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N  79.1W AT 01/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT  10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT....... 90NE  70SE   0SW   0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N  79.1W AT 01/0300Z
AT 01/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.5N  78.8W

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 16.0N  81.3W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE  60SE  30SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 16.4N  83.9W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE  60SE  40SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 16.8N  86.3W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE   0SE   0SW  15NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE  60SE  50SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 16.9N  88.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE   0SE   0SW  10NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT... 90NE  60SE  50SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 16.8N  89.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE   0SE   0SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 16.8N  91.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/0000Z 17.0N  93.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.6N  79.1W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 01/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI




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