Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Storm Kay Forecast Advisory


000
WTPZ22 KNHC 050850
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM KAY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122022
0900 UTC MON SEP 05 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KAY.  WATCHES MAY BE
REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 105.3W AT 05/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT  13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  995 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  50 KT WITH GUSTS TO  60 KT.
50 KT....... 50NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT.......180NE 100SE   0SW  90NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE  90SE   0SW  60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 105.3W AT 05/0900Z
AT 05/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 104.8W

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 16.0N 106.8W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  30SE   0SW  40NW.
34 KT...180NE 140SE  70SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 17.0N 108.5W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  25SE   0SW  25NW.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...180NE 160SE  90SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 18.1N 110.2W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  25NW.
50 KT... 80NE  80SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT...190NE 180SE 130SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 19.6N 111.7W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  40SE  20SW  30NW.
50 KT... 90NE  90SE  60SW  70NW.
34 KT...190NE 180SE 150SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 21.4N 112.7W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT...100NE 100SE  80SW  90NW.
34 KT...210NE 190SE 150SW 170NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 23.3N 113.4W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT...100NE 100SE  80SW  90NW.
34 KT...210NE 190SE 160SW 180NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z 27.5N 115.1W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 10/0600Z 29.9N 118.3W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.7N 105.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN




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