Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Storm Karl Forecast Advisory


000
WTNT24 KNHC 130233
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM KARL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142022
0300 UTC THU OCT 13 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TUXPAN TO FRONTERA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.  ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE
REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF MEXICO ON THURSDAY.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.4N  94.3W AT 13/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT   0 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  50 KT WITH GUSTS TO  60 KT.
50 KT....... 40NE  40SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT....... 90NE  80SE  40SW   0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE  60SE  45SW  60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.4N  94.3W AT 13/0300Z
AT 13/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.4N  94.3W

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 22.0N  94.0W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 70NE  60SE  40SW  30NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 21.1N  93.7W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  30NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 20.1N  93.5W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  30NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 19.1N  93.6W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  30NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 18.1N  94.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 16.9N  94.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 17/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.4N  94.3W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 13/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG




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