000 WTNT35 KNHC 282355 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Idalia Intermediate Advisory Number 9A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102023 700 PM CDT Mon Aug 28 2023 ...IDALIA ALMOST A HURRICANE NEAR THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA... ...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND DANGEROUS WINDS BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF FLORIDA... SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.7N 85.1W ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM SW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA ABOUT 250 MI...400 KM SW OF THE DRY TORTUGAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Englewood northward to Indian Pass, including Tampa Bay A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Cuban province of Pinar del Rio * Middle of Longboat Key northward to Indian Pass, including Tampa Bay A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Yucatan Peninsula from Tulum to Rio Lagartos, including Cozumel * Isle of Youth Cuba * Dry Tortugas Florida * Chokoloskee northward to the Middle of Longboat Key * West of Indian Pass to Mexico Beach A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Chokoloskee northward to Englewood, including Charlotte Harbour * Mouth of the St. Mary's River to South Santee River South Carolina A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Englewood to the Middle of Longboat Key A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Lower Florida Keys west of the west end of the Seven Mile Bridge * Sebastian Inlet Florida northward to South Santee River South Carolina A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests along the southeastern U.S. coast should monitor the progress of this system. Additional watches and warnings along the southeast United States coast will likely be required later tonight or on Tuesday. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Idalia was located near latitude 21.7 North, longitude 85.1 West. Idalia is moving toward the north near 8 mph (13 km/h). A northward motion is expected through tonight, followed by a faster north-northeast motion on Tuesday and Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Idalia is forecast to pass near or over western Cuba during the next few hours, over the eastern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday, and reach the Gulf coast of Florida within the Hurricane Warning area on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid strengthening is predicted during the next day or so. Idalia could become a hurricane at any time, and is forecast to become a major hurricane by late Tuesday or Tuesday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km) from the center. Casablanca, near Havana Cuba, reported a wind gust to 51 mph (82 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 983 mb (29.03 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Idalia can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC, and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Aucilla River, FL to Chassahowitzka, FL...8-12 ft Chassahowitzka, FL to Anclote River, FL...6-9 ft Ochlockonee River, FL to Aucilla River, FL...5-8 ft Anclote River, FL to Middle of Longboat Key, FL...4-7 ft Tampa Bay...4-7 ft Middle of Longboat Key, FL to Englewood, FL...3-5 ft Englewood, FL to Chokoloskee, FL...2-4 ft Charlotte Harbor...2-4 ft Indian Pass, FL to Ochlockonee River, FL...3-5 ft Mouth of the St. Mary's River to South Santee, SC...2-4 ft Chokoloskee, FL to East Cape Sable, FL...1-3 ft Flagler/Volusia County Line, FL to Mouth of St. Mary's River...1-3 ft Indian Pass to Mexico Beach...1 to 3 ft. Florida Keys...1-2 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. Storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 4 to 6 feet above normal tide levels along the southern coast of Pinar del Rio, Cuba. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large waves. WIND: Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning areas in western Cuba through Tuesday morning. Tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of the tropical storm warning area over the Yucatan Peninsula. Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area in Florida by late Tuesday or Wednesday, with tropical storm conditions beginning on Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Dry Tortugas beginning tonight and within the tropical storm warning area along the Florida Gulf coast on Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions are possible along the southeast U.S. coast within the southern portions of the watch area by early Wednesday. RAINFALL: Idalia is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts: Portions of the eastern Yucatan: Additional 1 to 2 inches. Western Cuba: 4 to 7 inches, with isolated higher totals of 10 inches. Portions of the west coast of Florida, the Florida Panhandle, southeast Georgia and the eastern Carolinas: 4 to 8 inches from Tuesday into Thursday. Isolated higher totals of 12 inches possible, primarily near landfall in northern Florida. This rainfall may lead to flash and urban flooding, and landslides across western Cuba. Areas of flash and urban flooding, some of which may be locally significant, are expected across portions of the west coast of Florida, the Florida Panhandle, and southern Georgia Tuesday into Wednesday, spreading into portions of the eastern Carolinas Wednesday into Thursday. SURF: Swells generated by Idalia are affecting portions of the southern coast of Cuba and eastern Yucatan. These swells will spread northward along the eastern Gulf Coast during the next day or two. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes will be possible starting Tuesday along the west-central Florida coast and the tornado threat will spread northward into the Florida Big Bend area by Tuesday night. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch