152 WTPA41 PHFO 161437 TCDCP1 Tropical Storm Darby Discussion Number 29 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP052022 500 AM HST Sat Jul 16 2022 Deep convection associated with Darby remains limited, with only a recent burst of convection north of the low-level circulation center over the past few hours. CIMSS SATCON intensity estimates remain around 40 kt. The current satellite intensity estimate from PHFO is 35 kt. Based on these data, and convective trends, the initial intensity remains at 40 kt. The initial motion is now 270/19 kt. Low- to mid-level easterly flow associated with high pressure to the north supports the westerly track persisting until the system dissipates. The new forecast track is in the center of the tightly-clustered track guidance, with only a slight increase in forward speed compared to the previous forecast. Darby will continue to weaken as it moves over 25-26C sea surface temperatures and ingests drier air. This combined with moderate shear will translate to the system becoming a post-tropical cyclone by 24 hours, and the global models are in good agreement that the system will dissipate to a surface trough by 36 hours. The new intensity forecast is very similar to the previous forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/1500Z 17.5N 153.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 17/0000Z 17.3N 156.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 17/1200Z 17.2N 160.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 18/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Jelsema/Gibbs