000 WTPZ44 KNHC 091444 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Bonnie Discussion Number 48 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042022 800 AM PDT Sat Jul 09 2022 The last few deep convective cloud tops below -50C dissipated with Bonnie at around 0600 UTC last night. In the absence of any deeper convection since then, Bonnie's remaining time as a tropical cyclone is fleeting. Subjective and objective Dvorak estimates continue to decrease, and the initial intensity has been reduced to 35 kt in this advisory. The initial motion continues just north of due west at 280/18 kt. As Bonnie continues weakening, it will be increasingly steered westward by the low-level trade wind flow. The latest track forecast is largely an update of the previous one but just a bit faster, remaining close to the center of the track guidance envelope. Bonnie is now over sub-24C sea-surface temperatures and embedded in a very dry, stable atmospheric environment. These factors are expected to prevent additional deep convective activity over the system. If deeper convection does not return soon near the center, Bonnie could become a post-tropical cyclone as early as this afternoon. This expectation is reflected in the latest forecast with Bonnie becoming a remnant low in 12 h, with the closed circulation opening up into a trough in 48 h. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/1500Z 19.5N 127.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 10/0000Z 19.6N 130.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 10/1200Z 19.6N 133.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 11/0000Z 19.6N 136.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 11/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Papin