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Tropical Depression Victor Forecast Discussion


000
WTNT45 KNHC 040235
TCDAT5

Tropical Depression Victor Discussion Number  19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL202021
1100 PM AST Sun Oct 03 2021

In its battle against dry air and shear, Victor is far from its
namesake. The depression continues to produce only minimal deep
convection to the north. Furthermore, an ASCAT overpass near 2219
UTC casts doubt on whether Victor still has a closed and 
well-defined circulation, showing generally light winds south of 
the suspect center. However, no visible imagery is currently 
available to confirm the state of Victor's surface center, so 
advisories will continue for now. ASCAT data showed winds a little 
above 25 kt to the northeast of Victor's center, so the initial 
intensity is held at 30 kt for this advisory.

Victor is moving northwestward at a slightly faster speed (305/13 
kt).  Based on the ASCAT data and recent ProxyVis imagery, the 
center of Victor was relocated about 40 n mi south of previous 
estimates, which has resulted in a southern shift in the forecast 
track. That said, Victor is not expected to persist for much longer. 
The hostile surrounding environment will likely cause Victor to 
become a remnant low or dissipate on Monday. Victor, or its 
remnants, should move generally northwestward or west-northwestward 
until dissipation occurs within a day or so.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  04/0300Z 17.8N  43.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  04/1200Z 18.8N  44.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  05/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky



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