Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Depression Twelve Forecast Discussion


000
WTNT42 KNHC 060242
TCDAT2

Tropical Depression Twelve Discussion Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122022
1100 PM AST Wed Oct 05 2022

Occasional pulses of deep convection with cloud top temperatures 
below -70 C continue to occur near and to the northeast of the 
center of the tropical depression. We finally were able to receive 
some scatterometer data near the system, with the highest 
non-flagged wind retrievals of 28 and 32 kts from both ASCAT-B/C 
passes. Subjective and objective Dvorak T-numbers have been 
decreasing, but in deference to the higher scatterometer data, the 
initial intensity was held at 30 kt for this advisory. The 
southwesterly vertical wind shear over the depression is now above 
30 kts, and is expected to increase further over the next 24 hours. 
This highly unfavorable environment should ultimately lead to the 
system's demise as the remaining deep convection is stripped 
completely away from the low-level circulation. The intensity 
forecast still shows the depression becoming a remnant low in 24 
hours and then opening up into a trough in 48 hours, though this 
could occur as soon as tomorrow morning.

The depression has made a northward jog this evening, but smoothing
out the 12 hour motion results in a northwest heading at 320/11 kt.
A northwest to west-northwest motion is expected to continue until
the system becomes a remnant low or dissipates in 24-48 hours. The
NHC track has been adjusted a bit northward due to the initial
position, but ends up near the previous forecast track in about 48
hours, following along with the consensus aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  06/0300Z 17.7N  32.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  06/1200Z 18.7N  33.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  07/0000Z 19.4N  35.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  07/1200Z 20.3N  38.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  08/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Papin



Source link