Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Depression Nicole Forecast Discussion


000
WTNT42 KNHC 110842
TCDAT2

Tropical Depression Nicole Discussion Number  17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL172022
400 AM EST Fri Nov 11 2022

NWS radar data and surface observations indicate the center of
Nicole is located over southwestern Georgia this morning. The
heaviest precipitation is occurring within outer rainbands that are
displaced well away from the center over portions of Georgia, South
Carolina, and northern Florida. The strongest sustained winds
appear to be occurring over the southeastern U.S. offshore waters,
where NOAA buoy 41004 southeast of Charleston has been reporting
peak 1-minute winds between 25-30 kt. Scatterometer data received
just after the previous advisory showed a broad area of 25-kt wind
vectors over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico as well. Based on these
data, Nicole remains a 30-kt depression for this advisory.

Nicole has begun turning more northward during the past few hours, 
and its initial motion is now north-northwestward at 335/14 kt. The 
system is expected to accelerate northward to north-northeastward 
today within the flow ahead of a deep-layer trough approaching from 
the west. This motion should bring the center of Nicole across 
central and northern Georgia this morning and toward western 
portions of the Carolinas later today. Nicole is forecast to lose 
its warm core structure and become a post-tropical cyclone later 
today, then dissipate by 24 h as it becomes absorbed by a large 
frontal system moving across the eastern United States.


Key Messages:

1. Renewed river flooding on the St. Johns River (FL) is ongoing.
Isolated flash, urban, and small stream flooding will be possible
today across the southern and central Appalachians, particularly in
the Blue Ridge Mountains. Heavy rain and isolated flooding impacts
will extend north through eastern Ohio, west central Pennsylvania,
into western New York and northern New England by tonight into
Saturday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  11/0900Z 31.9N  84.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  11/1800Z 34.9N  83.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 24H  12/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Reinhart



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