Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Depression Georgette Forecast Discussion


000
WTPZ43 KNHC 020846
TCDEP3

Tropical Depression Georgette Discussion Number  24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP082022
200 AM PDT Tue Aug 02 2022

Like the last couple of nights, Georgette is exhibiting a bursting 
pattern this morning, with just enough convective activity to 
maintain writing advisories on the tropical cyclone. With that said, 
the convection is waning, lacks much organization, and the low-level 
center appears to now be exposed to the northeast of the coldest 
cloud tops, as indicated by a recently arriving ASCAT-C pass. 
Satellite intensity estimates have not changed much despite this 
convection, and the peak winds from the scatterometer data was only 
26 kt. The initial intensity will remain 30 kt this advisory.

Georgette appears to be making the long-awaited turn to the 
north-northeast, with the latest motion estimated at 030/4 kt. This 
motion is due to the presence of low- to mid-level southwesterly 
flow south of Frank, which is influencing Georgette's steering. 
However, after the next 24-48 hours, a low-level ridge is expected 
to build back in after Frank departs to the north. The track 
guidance responds to this changing synoptic pattern by making 
Georgette take a sharp turn westward and then west-southwestward by 
the end of the forecast period. The latest track forecast was 
shifted a little east of the prior one, but not as far east as the 
multi-model consensus aids.

It is unclear how long Georgette will be able to survive the current 
marginal environment of moderate (15-20 kt) northeasterly vertical 
wind shear and dry (55-60 percent) mid-level relative humidity. Even 
sea-surface temperatures gradually cool along its track, from 27 C 
currently to below 26 C in 48 hours. Afterwards, both GFS and ECMWF 
model simulated IR images suggest the remaining convection with 
Georgette will dissipate, and the system is forecast to become a 
remnant low by Thursday afternoon. While little change in strength 
is shown in the NHC forecast over the next couple of days, it 
would not be surprising if the cyclone becomes a remnant low or 
loses its well-defined circulation sooner than indicated here.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  02/0900Z 13.7N 130.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  02/1800Z 14.4N 130.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  03/0600Z 15.4N 130.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  03/1800Z 16.2N 130.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  04/0600Z 16.7N 131.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 60H  04/1800Z 16.6N 132.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  05/0600Z 16.1N 134.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  06/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Papin



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